Market Overview for HEMI/Turkish Lira (HEMITRY): Volatility Peaks, Momentum Fades

• HEMI/Turkish Lira surged to a 24-hour high of 2.99 TRY before consolidating near 2.92 TRY at 12:00 ET.
• Key bullish momentum was evident early, with a strong 15-minute rally exceeding 3% from 2.89 to 2.99.
• Volatility expanded mid-session but has since contracted, suggesting a potential reversal or pause.
• Volume surged to 1.33M units in the 17:15–17:30 ET window, confirming the intraday high.
• A bearish divergence between price and RSI suggests caution, with potential for a pullback.

24-Hour Snapshot

HEMI/Turkish Lira opened at 2.89 TRY on 2025-10-12 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 2.99 TRY during the session. By 12:00 ET on 2025-10-13, the pair closed at 2.92 TRY. The 24-hour trading session saw total volume of 19.8 million units and notional turnover of ~58.2 million TRY, with significant volatility and volume clustering in the afternoon hours.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24-hour period showed a distinct bullish impulse early in the session, with a high-volume 15-minute candle (17:15–17:30 ET) forming a hanging man pattern near the 2.99 level, hinting at bearish reversal potential. A key support level emerged around 2.90–2.91 TRY, where the price consolidated multiple times during the evening hours. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 23:45–00:00 ET, indicating a shift in momentum toward the downside.

Engulfing and Divergence

A clear bearish divergence developed between price and RSI after 21:00 ET, with price reaching new highs while RSI failed to confirm strength. This divergence was reinforced by a bearish engulfing candle and a pullback below key intraday support. While a reversal is not yet fully confirmed, the pattern suggests a potential pause or retest of lower levels.

Moving Averages and Volatility

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed multiple times, indicating choppy momentum. The 50-period MA sat slightly below the 20-period MA in the early hours, signaling bullish momentum. However, by the afternoon, the 20-period MA had crossed below the 50-period MA, forming a potential death cross on the shorter time frame.

Bollinger Bands widened during the midday rally but began to contract in the final 4 hours of the session, suggesting a reduction in volatility and a potential pause in directional movement. Price closed near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating a return toward mean reversion.

MACD and RSI Signals

The 15-minute MACD showed a bullish crossover early in the session but rapidly reversed into bearish territory as volume surged past 1.3M units. RSI reached overbought conditions (above 70) twice during the session but failed to hold above 70 after 21:00 ET, reinforcing bearish momentum and overbought exhaustion.

Volume and Turnover Divergence

Volume spiked to 1.33M units during the 17:15–17:30 ET candle, confirming the intraday high of 2.99 TRY. However, subsequent volume dropped below 500K units, indicating weak follow-through. A bearish volume divergence formed in the last 2 hours of the session, as price declined while volume held steady, suggesting weakening bearish conviction.

Turnover data showed a similar pattern, with a peak of ~4.0M TRY during the midday rally followed by a steady decline into the evening. This divergence between price and turnover suggests that the bullish move was driven by short-term speculation rather than sustained demand.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

Fibonacci retracements applied to the morning 2.89–2.99 TRY rally show the 61.8% level at 2.94 TRY, which held as a pivot point during the consolidation phase. A 38.2% retrace at 2.91 TRY acted as a key support level, where price bounced twice before eventually breaking down. These levels may serve as immediate resistance and support in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the identified bearish engulfing patterns, RSI overbought exhaustion, and volume divergence, a short (sell) strategy entering near the 2.99 TRY high with a stop-loss at 3.00 TRY and a target at 2.85 TRY could be backtested. The approach would hold for 1–3 days, leveraging intraday momentum and mean reversion signals. A successful execution would capture the pullback seen in the final hours of the session. With the correct ticker symbol, this strategy could be refined using historical OHLC data, RSI-14, and pattern recognition for performance validation.