Market Overview for HEMI/Turkish Lira (HEMITRY) – October 25, 2025

• HEMI/Turkish Lira edged higher in early hours but consolidated near 2.52 by 12:00 ET.
• Strong volume spikes after 19:30 ET supported a bullish breakout above 2.52.
• RSI and MACD suggest moderate momentum but not overbought territory, favoring sideways to bullish potential.
• Bollinger Bands expanded as volatility increased, with price near the upper band.
• Notional turnover grew sharply with price, no significant divergence noted.

24-Hour Market Snapshot

The HEMI/Turkish Lira pair (HEMITRY) opened at 2.50 at 12:00 ET–1 and reached a high of 2.55 during the 24-hour period. A low of 2.48 was recorded before a final close of 2.55 at 12:00 ET. Total volume was approximately 1,336,040.4 units, while notional turnover amounted to roughly 3,367,986.0 Turkish Lira. The pair exhibited a steady climb after 19:45 ET with confirmation through increasing volume and positive divergence.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern over the past 24 hours displayed a series of bullish consolidations after a brief period of bearish pressure in the early session. A strong bullish engulfing pattern emerged around 19:45 ET, confirming a reversal in sentiment. Notable support levels were identified near 2.50 and 2.48, with resistance at 2.52 and 2.55 acting as key price ceilings. A potential bearish doji appeared near the 02:45 ET mark, though insufficient volume accompanied it to confirm a reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages showed HEMITRY trending above both with a bullish bias. On the daily timeframe, the 50/100/200-period moving averages indicated a more neutral stance, with the 200-period line acting as a strong long-term support. Price has not yet broken above the 50-period line, suggesting potential for further upward momentum but with caution on pullbacks.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed increasing bullish momentum from around 19:30 ET onward, confirming the breakout above 2.52. RSI climbed to the 58–62 range during this period, indicating moderate strength without entering overbought territory. This suggests the rally is still in early stages and could sustain upward movement, though further advances may face resistance at 2.55 and 2.57.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands widened significantly after 19:45 ET, reflecting a sharp increase in volatility as the pair surged past key resistance. Price closed near the upper band, suggesting a strong bullish bias. A contraction before this expansion hinted at a potential breakout, which was indeed realized. The bands now offer a range for potential pullbacks to test the 2.50–2.52 support zone.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked strongly from 19:30 ET onward, with large bars confirming the bullish breakout and subsequent consolidation. Notional turnover increased in tandem with price, with no divergences observed. The final hour of the period showed moderate activity, suggesting buyers remained active near the close. Volume remains a key positive signal for trend continuation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Recent 15-minute swings show HEMITRY retesting the 61.8% Fibonacci level at approximately 2.50 before breaking through. On the daily chart, the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels at 2.48 and 2.52 respectively acted as critical support and resistance. A test of the 78.6% retracement at around 2.57 could confirm a full bullish reversal if price continues to trend higher.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves identifying Bullish Engulfing patterns on the 15-minute chart, which were clearly visible at 19:45 ET. Entry would occur at the close of the second candle of the pattern, with a target sell at the close three candles later. This approach aligns with the observed volume and price confirmation, suggesting a robust signal. If applied to HEMITRY from 2022-01-01, the strategy could yield a quantifiable return profile, especially given the strong trend continuation observed in this case.