Market Overview for HEMI/Turkish Lira (HEMITRY) – October 11, 2025

• HEMI/Turkish Lira dropped to 2.90 TL intraday before bouncing to a 24-hour close of 3.08 TL, showing moderate volatility and weak recovery.
• Key support around 3.00–2.95 TL held during a late-night selloff, suggesting potential short-term floor.
• Volume surged during the 21:15–21:45 ET selloff but failed to confirm a bearish breakout, hinting at indecision.
• RSI reached oversold territory below 30, indicating potential for a short-term rebound, while MACD showed bearish divergence.
• Bollinger Band contraction occurred mid-day, suggesting a potential breakout or breakdown in the near term.

HEMI/Turkish Lira (HEMITRY) opened at 3.48 TL on October 10 at 12:00 ET and closed at 3.08 TL the following day, dipping as low as 2.90 TL during the selloff. The total traded volume reached 42,170,441.4 units, with a notional turnover of approximately 126.22 million Turkish Lira across the 24-hour window. The price action displayed a sharp mid-night selloff followed by a muted rebound into early morning.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a strong bearish breakdown from the 3.45–3.55 resistance cluster during the 21:30–22:00 ET session, with a long bearish shadow forming at the 21:30 candle. A 2.90–3.00 support zone held during the overnight session, with a potential bullish reversal candle forming at 3:00 AM ET. A key bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 21:30 ET, confirming the breakdown, followed by a doji at 3.00–3.03 TL, signaling indecision and potential consolidation.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were closely aligned and trending downward, reflecting bearish momentum. The price closed below both indicators, reinforcing the downtrend. On the daily timeframe, the 50 and 200-period moving averages suggest a longer-term bearish bias, with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 2.85–2.95 TL acting as a critical level for further support.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD crossed below zero with a bearish histogram expansion during the selloff, indicating accelerating bearish momentum. RSI dropped to 29–31 levels, entering oversold territory, suggesting a potential bounce. However, MACD and RSI bearish divergence formed during the 3:00–4:00 AM session, implying caution around a sustained reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands contracted tightly between 3.05–3.15 TL from 0:45 AM to 2:45 AM, signaling a potential breakout. Price then moved below the lower band during the selloff, confirming bearish bias. The recent rebound has kept price within the band, suggesting a temporary equilibrium, but a break below the 2.90–2.95 TL range could signal a deeper correction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 5.66 million units during the 21:30–21:45 ET selloff, coinciding with a 30% drop in price to 2.90 TL. This suggests strong bearish participation. However, volume during the rebound in the early morning was relatively low, indicating weak conviction. Notional turnover mirrored this pattern, with a significant portion of the 126.22 million TL turnover concentrated in the late-night selloff.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the price found support at the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels after the selloff, with 3.00–3.05 TL serving as a key short-term floor. On the daily chart, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 2.85–2.95 TL remains critical for the near term. A break below this level could extend the correction to the 2.70 TL level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy that enters a short position on the confirmation of a bearish engulfing pattern (with a close below the 3.00 TL support) and exits on a bullish reversal candle above 3.15 TL may capture the recent bearish wave. Given the volume confirmation during the selloff, this approach could be effective in 15–30-minute timeframes. A stop-loss above the 3.15–3.18 resistance cluster would help manage risk. The recent RSI divergence and Bollinger Band contraction suggest the strategy should also include volatility-based filters for optimal timing.