Market Overview for HEMI/Turkish Lira (HEMITRY)

• HEMI/Turkish Lira declined to a 24-hour low of 3.7 at 1:15 AM ET.
• A bearish breakout below key support at 3.82 triggered further downside.
• Volatility expanded significantly after 10 PM ET with a sharp drop to 3.6.
• Volume surged at the 3.65–3.70 range, confirming bearish momentum.
• RSI reached oversold territory, suggesting potential near-term bounce.

The 24-hour period for HEMI/Turkish Lira (HEMITRY) began on October 2, 2025, at 12:00 ET, with an open of 3.80, reaching a high of 3.91 before closing at 3.63 at 12:00 ET on October 3. The pair traded within a range of 3.7 to 3.91, with a total 24-hour volume of 14,169,547.2 and a turnover of 51,815,131.1. The price action reflected heightened bearish momentum, particularly after the formation of a bearish engulfing pattern at 3.72–3.70 and a key breakdown below the 3.82 support.

Key support levels identified include 3.63 (recent low), 3.7 (partial rebound), and 3.82 (initial breakdown level), while resistance remains at 3.83, 3.86, and 3.91 (high of the session). The RSI (14-period) dipped into oversold territory, suggesting a potential near-term correction, but without a clear reversal pattern, a continued test of support below 3.63 cannot be ruled out. The 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart crossed below the 20-period line, signaling short-term bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands expanded during the bearish leg, with price staying at the lower band for multiple consecutive periods, indicating high volatility and bearish control. The 20-period moving average moved below both the 50-period and the price, suggesting continued bearish bias. The volume profile showed a sharp increase at the 3.65–3.70 range, aligning with the price rejection at that level and confirming bearish conviction.

The Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent high (3.91) to the low (3.63) indicate potential support at 3.78 (38.2%) and 3.72 (61.8%), which could offer buying interest if the trend stalls. However, a failure to hold above 3.63 would likely target the next major support at 3.55–3.60. A potential reversal may emerge if the price closes above 3.72 with confirmation by volume and a bullish divergence in RSI.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtest strategy involves entering a short position when the 20-period moving average crosses below the 50-period line on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern and a close below key support at 3.78. Exit the position on a close above the 61.8% Fibonacci level (3.72) or upon a 3.5% stop loss below entry. This approach aligns with the observed bearish momentum and key technical levels, making it a viable short-term strategy for the HEMI/Turkish Lira pair in the current context.