Market Overview for HEMI/Turkish Lira (HEMITRY) – 24-Hour Summary

• Price surged to 5.78 TRY before retracing to a 24-hour low of 4.84 TRY.
• Volume spiked during the initial rally but diminished in the latter half of the day.
• RSI entered overbought territory early but has since trended lower into neutral range.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the peak and have since narrowed, suggesting lower volatility.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed around 5.00 TRY, but it failed to hold as price pulled back.

24-Hour Summary

On 2025-09-26 at 12:00 ET, HEMI/Turkish Lira (HEMITRY) opened at 4.92 TRY and reached a high of 5.78 TRY before closing at 4.85 TRY at 12:00 ET the following day. The pair experienced a 24-hour trading range between 4.84 TRY and 5.78 TRY, with a total volume of 106,074,701.3 units and a notional turnover of approximately 523,452,489 TRY.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour price action of HEMI/TRY displayed a strong bullish push from 4.92 to 5.78 TRY, followed by a sharp pullback that tested key support levels below 5.10 TRY. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged around the 5.00 TRY level during the rebound phase, indicating possible short-term buying interest. However, the pattern failed to hold as bearish pressure returned. A bearish divergence between price and RSI suggests continued caution. The 4.95 TRY level has acted as a strong support area during the retracement, and a potential rebound from this level could indicate a continuation of consolidation.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed in a bullish manner during the early rally, confirming initial strength. However, the 50-period line has since crossed below the 20-period line, signaling bearish momentum. On a daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period lines remain in a bearish configuration, with the 200-day MA acting as a significant resistance at around 5.05 TRY. This suggests a longer-term bearish bias, with potential for a pullback or consolidation before any further breakout attempt.

MACD crossed into positive territory early in the session, indicating bullish momentum, but has since flattened as bearish pressure returned. RSI moved into overbought territory (above 70) during the peak but has since corrected into neutral to slightly oversold territory (around 45–50), suggesting a potential short-term bottoming process. However, the divergence between price and RSI indicates caution.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands showed significant expansion during the bullish phase, reaching a width of over 0.70 TRY, highlighting heightened volatility. As the pair corrected, the bands gradually narrowed, now sitting at around 0.20 TRY, indicating a period of consolidation. Price has remained within the bands for the majority of the day, suggesting no immediate breakout is in the offing. A close above the upper band or below the lower band would be needed to confirm a directional bias.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the 4.84–5.78 swing have seen key resistance at 5.41 (38.2%) and 5.24 (61.8%). Price tested the 5.24 level multiple times before pulling back. The 4.95 level, which aligns with the 78.6% retracement level of a key daily swing, has also acted as a significant support. A break below this would likely target the next major support at 4.80 TRY, potentially extending the bearish bias.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked during the initial bullish phase, particularly between 17:30 and 18:30 ET, with over 4.8 million units traded in that hour. However, volume has since decreased significantly, especially during the retracement phase, indicating a potential exhaustion of short-term bearish pressure. Notional turnover confirmed this trend, with the highest turnover during the early rally, followed by a marked decline in the final hours. The divergence between price and turnover during the pullback may signal a potential short-term bottoming pattern.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves using a combination of the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on a 15-minute chart to identify entry points. A long position is triggered when the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA and RSI is above 50, indicating bullish momentum. A short position is triggered when the 20-period MA crosses below the 50-period MA and RSI is below 50. Stops are placed at the 10-period Bollinger Band floor or ceiling, depending on the direction. Given the recent divergence in RSI and the current position of the moving averages, this strategy may suggest a short bias for the near term, with close monitoring of the 4.95 TRY level as a potential reversal point.