Market Overview for HEMI/Turkish Lira (HEMITRY) – 2025-11-05

Summary
• HEMI/Turkish Lira fell from 1.75 to 1.41, closing at 1.42.
• High volatility and large bearish candles suggest significant short-term pressure.
• Volume surged to over 10 million TRY during a key breakdown.
• RSI indicates oversold conditions, hinting at possible bounce.
• MACD turned negative, aligning with bearish momentum.

Market Context

HEMI/Turkish Lira (HEMITRY) opened at 1.52 on 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET, peaked at 1.75, and hit a low of 1.41 before closing at 1.42 on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET. Over the 24-hour period, total volume reached 54,278,408.5 TRY, and turnover amounted to approximately 54,278,408.5 TRY. The 15-minute chart shows a strong bearish reversal pattern after the price spiked.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a large bearish engulfing pattern during the night session (21:30–21:45 ET), confirming a breakdown from the 1.55–1.75 range. A key support level appears at 1.43–1.45, where the price found multiple pauses. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level aligns with 1.44–1.45, which may serve as a near-term support zone. No clear bullish reversal patterns emerged during the session.

Moving Averages & Momentum

Short-term momentum shifted sharply lower as the price broke below the 20-period (15-minute) moving average. The 50-period EMA dipped below the 20-period EMA, confirming bearish divergence. RSI is currently at 26, indicating oversold territory, but a rebound could still face resistance from the 1.50–1.52 level. MACD turned negative and remains below its signal line, suggesting continued downward pressure.

Volatility & Bollinger Bands

Volatility spiked during the critical breakdown, with a 15-minute candle showing a high of 1.75 and low of 1.52 in the same period. The price is now near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating high volatility and possible mean reversion. A contraction in band width before 21:00 ET preceded the sharp move, hinting at a potential turning point in the trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy focuses on identifying candlestick-based signals, particularly bearish engulfing patterns that preceded sharp declines in HEMI/Turkish Lira. Given the high volume and price action around 21:30–21:45 ET, where a bearish engulfing pattern occurred, the strategy would have triggered a sell signal. If applied to the 2022–2025 period, this approach could provide insight into the predictive power of candlestick patterns in this market.