Market Overview for HEMI/Turkish Lira (HEMITRY) as of 2025-10-10

• HEMI/Turkish Lira (HEMITRY) traded in a 24-hour range of 3.42–3.77, closing near 3.67 after a late morning rally.
• Price formed a bullish engulfing pattern at 3.55–3.61 and a bearish divergence on RSI near 3.66–3.68.
• Volatility expanded after 6:00 AM ET with a surge in volume, reaching 2.25M units at the peak.
• A key support at 3.60 was tested and held, while resistance appears near 3.68–3.71.
• Strong positive momentum emerged post-breakfast hours, followed by consolidation by midday.

Opening at 3.55 on October 9, 12:00 ET, HEMI/Turkish Lira (HEMITRY) reached a 24-hour high of 3.77 and closed at 3.67 by 12:00 ET October 10. The pair experienced a range-bound session with total volume of 17.5 million units and a notional turnover of approximately 64,000 Turkish Lira over the 24-hour window.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute OHLCV data shows a strong support cluster forming around 3.60–3.62, where the price has tested and bounced off multiple times. Notably, a bullish engulfing pattern formed in the early morning hours, with a long green candle opening at 3.55 and closing at 3.61 after touching 3.66. A key bearish divergence was observed on RSI near 3.66, where price continued higher while momentum weakened.

A significant consolidation phase developed after the midday highs, forming a bearish flag pattern between 3.66 and 3.71. The price attempted a breakout in the evening but failed to hold above 3.68, indicating a potential reversal. The most recent candle, closing at 3.67, suggests indecision, with a small body and balanced wicks.

Moving Averages & Momentum

Short-term traders would find the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart closely aligned near 3.65–3.66, suggesting a neutral bias. The 50-period MA crossed the 20-period MA in the morning, signaling a bullish crossover that coincided with the 3.66–3.68 consolidation.

On the daily chart, the 50-period MA remains above 3.58, while the 200-period MA hovers near 3.55. The price is currently trading above both, which may indicate short-term strength but lacks a clear trend beyond the intraday range.

The RSI has shown mixed signals, with a brief overbought reading around 3.70 followed by a quick pullback. MACD remains flat to slightly positive, with no clear divergence detected on the hourly scale. This suggests that while the pair has momentum, it lacks the sustained directional thrust to push higher.

Bollinger Bands & Fibonacci Retracements

Volatility expanded significantly during the mid-morning hours, pushing the price above the upper Bollinger Band at 3.68–3.70, before retracting back into the channel. The lower Bollinger Band currently sits at 3.60–3.62, forming a key support zone that has been repeatedly tested. The current 15-minute volatility index is moderately elevated, suggesting a potential for further short-term oscillations.

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the 3.55–3.71 intraday swing, the key levels of interest are 3.64 (38.2%), 3.67 (50%), and 3.69 (61.8%). Price is currently consolidating near the 50% retracement level, indicating a possible continuation or a potential reversal if this level fails to hold.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply between 6:15 AM and 8:30 AM ET, with a total of 2.25 million units traded in the 3.66–3.71 range. This period saw the highest notional turnover at approximately 80,000 Turkish Lira, coinciding with a 3.67–3.71 consolidation phase. The volume during this rally was robust compared to previous sessions, indicating strong participation from both buyers and sellers.

However, volume declined in the latter part of the session, particularly after the 11:30 AM ET consolidation. This could signal a temporary exhaustion of buyers at higher levels. A close above 3.68 with expanding volume could confirm a breakout, whereas declining volume at key resistance levels could hint at a bearish reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy leverages a combination of RSI and moving average crossovers on the 15-minute chart to identify short-term momentum shifts. The approach suggests entering long positions when RSI crosses above 40 and the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA, while exiting when the opposite occurs or when RSI dips below 40. Given the recent RSI divergence and the MA alignment near 3.65, this strategy aligns with the current setup. If HEMITRY confirms a bullish breakout near 3.68 with expanding volume and a sustained RSI above 40, the strategy could yield positive returns over the next 24–48 hours.