Market Overview for HEMI/Turkish Lira

• Price action showed sharp bearish momentum from 7.41 to 5.80, with oversold RSI and diverging volume patterns.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with a 24-hour range of 1.61 TRY, and price tested lower Bollinger Band levels.
• Notable bearish engulfing and inside bar patterns formed during key selloffs, reinforcing bearish bias.
• Total volume increased by 40% in the last 6 hours, but notional turnover lagged, suggesting uneven participation.

The HEMI/Turkish Lira (HEMITRY) pair opened at 7.41 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET and closed at 5.80 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25. The 24-hour range reached from a high of 7.64 to a low of 5.62. Total traded volume was 81,357,897.99 TRY, with a notional turnover of ~6,150,000 TRY.

The structure of the HEMITRY chart over the past 24 hours displayed a clear bearish bias, with key support levels identified around 6.00–6.15 and 5.75–5.85. A strong bearish engulfing pattern formed around 2025-09-25 05:00–05:15, which marked the beginning of a sharp decline. Inside bar patterns and lower highs signaled a distribution phase, with sellers overpowering buyers. A potential short-term support cluster exists between 5.77 and 5.83, marked by multiple bounces.

Support and Resistance Levels

Key support levels were identified at 5.75–5.85, where price has found repeated bids, and 6.00–6.15, where a potential rebound might occur if the trend reverses. Resistance levels were observed at 6.30 and 6.55, both of which were tested during minor rallies. A notable bearish continuation pattern was visible in the final hours, suggesting sellers remain in control.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages (MA) trended downward, with the 50 MA acting as a resistance below the 20 MA, reinforcing bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA at ~7.00 and the 200-period MA at ~7.60 indicated a strong bearish bias. The RSI hit oversold territory at 25–30 in the final hours, suggesting potential exhaustion in the downtrend. However, MACD remained bearish with a negative divergence to price, indicating that bearish pressure is still intact.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a short position when the price closes below the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern and a RSI below 30. A stop-loss could be placed above the recent swing high, while a take-profit could be set at the next key support level. Given the recent volatility and divergence in volume, this setup could be tested for its consistency in capturing bearish momentum in a fast-moving market.