Market Overview for Hedera/Tether USDt (HBARUSDT) – 2025-09-11

• Hedera/Tether USDt (HBARUSDT) opened at $0.23386 and closed at $0.2335 on 2025-09-11.
• Price dipped to a 24-hour low of $0.23014 before rebounding to a high of $0.24106, indicating bearish volatility.
• Volume surged past 17 million in the 12:30 ET candle, coinciding with a sharp rally.
• RSI and MACD showed bearish divergence in the final 3 hours before a brief short-term reversal.
• Bollinger Bands displayed contraction mid-day, followed by a breakout to the upper band.

Hedera/Tether USDt (HBARUSDT) opened at $0.23386 on 2025-09-10 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.2335 on 2025-09-11 at 12:00 ET, with a high of $0.24106 and a low of $0.23014. Total volume across the 24-hour window was 177,707,290, and the notional turnover was approximately $41,611,870. This session marked a volatile and corrective phase, with price reacting sharply to key intraday levels.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart showed a strong bearish bias after a brief bullish rebound in the morning hours. A key support level appeared to form around $0.2340, where the price bounced twice after short-term declines. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at $0.24106, signaling a potential top. Additionally, a morning reversal occurred at $0.23851, suggesting short-term overbought conditions. A doji formed near $0.2350, indicating indecision among traders before the final leg lower. The overall structure suggests a bearish continuation could be likely if support below $0.2340 breaks.

Moving Averages (15-Min Chart)

On the 15-minute chart, the price tested the 20-period moving average (around $0.2365) before falling below the 50-period line (around $0.2372). This suggests short-term bearish momentum. The 20/50 crossover was bearish, confirming a bearish bias in the intraday timeframe. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) also remained bearish, with the price below all three, suggesting a continuation of the downtrend is likely.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line in the late morning, indicating a bearish turn. The RSI crossed into oversold territory below 30 in the early afternoon, suggesting a potential short-term bounce. However, price and RSI diverged in the final 3 hours, with RSI bottoming while price continued lower—this bearish divergence may indicate further downside is possible. Momentum indicators, while showing some short-term relief, did not confirm a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a contraction around 04:00–05:00 ET, signaling a potential breakout. The price eventually broke out to the upper band at $0.2385, but this was short-lived. By 10:00–11:00 ET, the price returned to the lower band at around $0.2340, where it held until the close. This suggests price action was range-bound for much of the session, with a final bearish move dragging it below the lower band. Volatility appears to have increased after the 10:00 ET candle.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply at 12:30 ET, reaching 17,770,729, coinciding with a sharp rebound to $0.24106. However, this price increase was not supported by subsequent volume, suggesting the move was likely short-lived. In contrast, the 14:30 ET candle showed high volume and a bearish price move, confirming the strength of the downward leg. The final hour saw reduced volume, indicating waning participation. Price and volume did not confirm a reversal, suggesting further consolidation or bearish action may follow.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels for the 15-minute swing from $0.23014 to $0.24106 showed key levels at 38.2% ($0.2360) and 61.8% ($0.2343). The price tested and failed at the 61.8% level on two separate occasions, indicating strong resistance in the $0.2343–0.2360 range. Daily Fibonacci levels showed a similar bearish bias, with the 61.8% retracement level at $0.2350 acting as resistance before the final leg lower. These levels suggest a potential target below $0.2340 is likely in the short term.

Looking ahead, HBARUSDT appears to be in a bearish phase, with key support at $0.2340 now under pressure. A break below this level may signal a further decline toward $0.2330 and beyond. While short-term bounces are possible, the overall trend remains bearish, and traders should remain cautious of further downside if volume confirms the break. Risk management is crucial, particularly if the 61.8% Fibonacci level fails to hold.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve a short bias when the price breaks below the 61.8% Fibonacci level and the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart. A stop-loss could be placed above the nearest resistance at $0.2345, with a target at $0.2330 or lower. This approach aligns with the bearish divergence observed in the RSI and MACD and is supported by volume confirmation during the 14:30 ET candle. This method may work best in a ranging or bearish market structure, as seen in this session.