Market Overview for Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT): Volatility and Divergence Signal Possible Continuation

• HBARUSDT declined 7.1% over 24 hours amid a sharp sell-off beginning after 00:45 ET.
• Volatility spiked sharply during the early morning sell-off, reaching a daily high-low range of 9.6%.
• A bearish divergence formed between RSI and price, suggesting further downside potential.
• A large volume spike coincided with the price break below key support at 0.22747.
• The asset is now near 0.2190–0.2195, with Fibonacci support levels at 0.2174 and 0.2154 in focus.

Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) opened at 0.23608 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.21907 as of 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.23689 and a low of 0.21028. The 24-hour trading period saw a total volume of 160.8 million HBAR and a notional turnover of $34.7 million. A sharp downward move in the early hours of 09-22 ET drove most of the movement, with price falling below key support levels and forming bearish candlestick patterns such as the dark cloud cover and a long lower shadow doji near 0.22747.

Structurally, HBARUSDT appears to be testing the 0.2190–0.2195 zone as a potential short-term floor. A significant bearish engulfing pattern developed during the early hours of the 24-hour period, which confirmed a shift in sentiment. The 0.22747 level was a critical pivot point that failed to hold, opening the door for a move toward the next Fibonacci retracement at 0.2174. A bearish harmonic pattern may be forming from the 0.23689 high, suggesting further momentum could carry price toward the 0.2154 level. Traders should watch for any bullish rejection at the 0.2190–0.2195 range or a breakdown below it.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both crossed below price during the early hours, confirming the bearish trend. The 50-period MA now sits at 0.2206, while the 20-period MA is at 0.2199, suggesting a continued downward bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at 0.2244, the 100-period at 0.2258, and the 200-period at 0.2274, all of which are above the current price. This reinforces the bearish outlook and suggests a potential for a test of longer-term support levels.

The RSI stands at 32 as of the close, indicating oversold territory but also a potential stall in the rate of decline. MACD turned negative at the onset of the selloff and remains bearish with a histogram that has widened in the negative range. Bollinger Bands show a sharp expansion following the sell-off, with price currently near the lower band, suggesting increased volatility. A rebound toward the middle band could trigger short-term profit-taking, but a sustained break below the lower band would signal a stronger bearish bias.

A bearish divergence is evident between the RSI and the price, as price reached a lower low while RSI did not. This divergence suggests that the downward momentum may not yet be exhausted. On the volume front, the large sell-off beginning at 00:45 ET was accompanied by a sharp spike in volume, confirming the move. However, volume has since declined, which could indicate a temporary pause in selling pressure. Notional turnover dropped significantly after the initial move, suggesting reduced conviction in the downward trend. A rebound in volume alongside a bounce in price could signal a short-term reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtesting strategy could focus on detecting bearish engulfing patterns followed by a break of key support levels, as seen in this 24-hour period. The pattern could be used as an entry trigger, with the first Fibonacci level below the low of the engulfing pattern used as a target and a stop loss placed above the high of the pattern. Incorporating RSI divergence as a confirmation filter would help avoid false signals. Given the low RSI and bearish momentum, a short or sell order might have been triggered during the early hours of 09-22 ET with a favorable risk-reward profile. This strategy would be most effective in a strong downtrend and could be refined using stop-loss and trailing take-profit mechanics to manage risk.