Market Overview for Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) - November 6, 2025

• Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) closed at 0.16441 after a 24-hour low of 0.1626 and high of 0.17683.
• Price action saw a bearish breakdown from key support levels and extended into a 6.4% drop post 17:00 ET.
• Volume increased during the afternoon but faded in the final 6 hours, signaling a potential consolidation phase.

Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) opened at 0.17458 at 12:00 ET on November 5, 2025, and closed at 0.16441 at 12:00 ET on November 6, 2025, after reaching a high of 0.17683 and a low of 0.1626. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 105,187,044.8, with a notional turnover of $17,126,813. The pair extended a multi-day bearish trend, with price action breaking down below key support levels into a Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed several key support levels, most notably at 0.17223, 0.17033, and 0.16434. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 0.17035–0.16961, indicating increased selling pressure. Additionally, a doji formed near 0.16957 at 10:00 ET, suggesting indecision after a brief consolidation phase.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute timeframe, price closed below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages all remained in a descending order, signaling a long-term bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram continued to contract into negative territory, showing weakening bullish momentum. The RSI, at 26.3 at close, entered oversold territory, but without a clear reversal sign. This suggests that a bounce may be imminent, but confirmation is needed before assuming a reversal has occurred.

Bollinger Bands

Price spent much of the session near the lower Bollinger Band, with volatility moderately expanded. At 16:00 ET, a sharp drop brought price near the 2σ band, indicating a potential exhaustion level. Traders may monitor the 0.1633–0.1626 range for potential retests or confirmations of a breakdown.

Volume & Turnover

Volume peaked at 8,152,989 at 19:30 ET, coinciding with a high of 0.17683, but then steadily declined over the last six hours of the session. This divergence between price and volume could signal weakening bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels for the 15-minute chart included 0.17336 (38.2%), 0.17258 (50%), and 0.17106 (61.8%). On the daily timeframe, the 0.16434 level was a critical 61.8% retracement of the recent bear move from 0.1762. A close above 0.17008 may trigger short-term retests of the 0.17106–0.17223 range.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy examined the viability of buying on RSI oversold signals with a fixed 5-day exit and 15% stop-loss. Despite capturing some short-term bounces, the overall strategy underperformed, with a total return of -46.7% since 2022. This highlights the limitations of relying solely on momentum-based entries in a structurally bearish asset. The analysis also revealed that a fixed 5-day exit often cut off potential follow-through moves, while the stop-loss was frequently triggered during down-legs. These findings suggest that adaptive exits or trend filters could improve the performance of similar strategies, especially in a sideways or bearish environment.