Market Overview for Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT): 2025-10-30

• HBARUSDT fell 6.3% over the past 24 hours amid a bearish reversal pattern and heavy volume.
• Key support tested at $0.1950, with RSI showing oversold conditions but MACD bearish divergence.
• Volatility expanded as price swung between $0.1933 and $0.2107, with Bollinger Bands signaling a potential contraction phase.
• High-turnover divergence occurred at $0.1980, hinting at potential exhaustion in the short-term bear move.
• Short-term Fibonacci levels at $0.1940 and $0.1920 could determine next directional bias.

Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) opened at $0.1984 on October 29 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.1923 on October 30 at the same time, swinging between a high of $0.2107 and a low of $0.1933 over the 24-hour period. Total volume reached 82.7 million HBAR, with a notional turnover of ~$16.8 million. Price action was bearish, driven by a sharp drop in the late hours of October 29 and early morning on October 30.

Structure & Formations

HBARUSDT formed a clear bearish reversal pattern over the past 24 hours, with a bearish engulfing candle emerging after a short-lived bullish spike. Key support levels have been identified at $0.1950 and $0.1930, while resistance is found at $0.1980 and $0.2000. The $0.2040–$0.2050 range appears to be a failed breakout zone, with price retreating after several attempts. A deep bearish pinbar near $0.2107 in the first candle of October 30 signaled weakening bullish momentum.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed below the price line, indicating a bearish bias. The 50-period MA, at $0.2020, serves as a dynamic resistance level. On the daily chart, the 50-day MA at $0.2040 and the 200-day MA at $0.2110 both lie above current price levels, reinforcing the bearish trend and suggesting further downward momentum is likely if key supports hold.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed bearish divergence as price bounced off $0.1950 but the MACD line continued to decline, signaling a lack of bullish conviction. The RSI reached oversold territory (~28) by the close of the 24-hour period, suggesting a potential rebound may be near, though bearish momentum remains intact. A RSI crossover above 35 could signal short-term stabilization, but a failure to do so may push the pair closer to $0.1920.

Bollinger Bands

HBARUSDT traded within a wide Bollinger Band range over the past 24 hours, indicating elevated volatility. The upper band hovered near $0.2100–$0.2110, and the lower band sat near $0.1930–$0.1950. Price closed near the lower band, suggesting a bearish bias and possible continuation if the band narrows in the near term. A contraction phase may follow, offering a potential setup for a short-term bounce should volume confirm.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged to a peak of 40.1 million HBAR at $0.2037–$0.1949 as price collapsed overnight, suggesting strong bearish participation. Notional turnover reached a high of ~$8.1 million during that period. However, as price approached $0.1950, volume declined, raising questions about the strength of the current bear move. Divergence between price and volume was most notable in the $0.1980–$0.1950 range, where price dropped but volume waned, hinting at a possible short-term bottoming process.

Fibonacci Retracements

On a 15-minute chart, the most recent swing high at $0.2080 and low at $0.1950 yielded key Fibonacci levels at 38.2% ($0.1984), 50% ($0.1965), and 61.8% ($0.1947). Price is currently testing the 61.8% level, which may act as a pivot point. On the daily chart, the larger swing from $0.2110 to $0.1930 produced critical retracement levels at $0.2020 and $0.1970—both of which are being tested or retested as of the 24-hour close.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential short-side backtest strategy would trigger a signal at the close of any day where a bearish engulfing candle appears, as seen in the early part of October 30. Given the recent bearish momentum and key Fibonacci and moving average levels aligning with such a pattern, a short entry appears justified. For the exit, a 1-bar holding period (closing at the next day’s close) may be suitable for initial testing. Alternatively, incorporating a 1% stop-loss above the entry price and a 2% take-profit target could help mitigate risk while capturing directional moves. This approach would allow the strategy to adapt to both high- and low-volatility environments.