Market Overview: Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) on 2025-10-11

• Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) dropped sharply from $0.2085 to $0.1175 on a massive volume spike before recovering to $0.1753 by close.
• Momentum weakened in the RSI after an initial bearish burst, with prices settling in a neutral zone but remaining below key moving averages.
• Volatility expanded significantly in the 15-minute chart, with Bollinger Bands widening and price action bouncing off 20-period support.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at peak, followed by a bullish reversal at the day’s low, signaling indecision and potential range-bound action.
• Turnover surged during the selloff, showing strong bearish conviction, but failed to follow through with further downside beyond $0.1175.

Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) opened at $0.2067 on 2025-10-10 12:00 ET, hit a high of $0.2085, and fell to a low of $0.0725 before closing at $0.1753 on 2025-10-11 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume reached 421.1 million, while notional turnover was $68.5 million. The sharp drop from $0.2085 to $0.1175 showed high bearish conviction, followed by a rebound that failed to break above the 20-period moving average of $0.175.

The structure of the day’s candlestick pattern indicates a volatile session, with a bearish engulfing at the top and a bullish reversal at the bottom. Price found support at $0.1175–$0.1392, which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci level of the initial drop. The 20-period MA hovered near $0.175 and acted as resistance. Resistance levels appear at $0.175 and $0.1765, while support is now around $0.169–$0.171, with potential for further consolidation.

Momentum, as measured by the RSI, showed a sharp bearish divergence early in the session, peaking at 20 before bouncing back into neutral territory. MACD crossed the zero line twice during the session, suggesting indecision and no clear trend. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly in the first hours, reflecting heightened volatility, and prices have since remained within the upper and middle bands on the 15-minute chart, suggesting a continuation of range-bound trading.

Volume spiked dramatically during the selloff, especially between 19:30 and 20:30 ET, confirming bearish sentiment. However, turnover during the rebound showed lower volume and a more moderate price recovery, suggesting buyers were not aggressive enough to push the price beyond $0.175. This divergence could hint at a potential reversal or consolidation phase. In the next 24 hours, traders may watch for a break above $0.1765 for a possible rally or a drop below $0.169 for a retest of the recent support zone. As always, large market moves could trigger unexpected volatility.

The backtest hypothesis builds on the key levels identified above. The strategy involves entering a long position on a bullish reversal candle (e.g., a hammer or bullish engulfing) forming at the lower Bollinger Band, with a stop loss below the recent swing low and a take profit at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Conversely, short positions could be triggered on bearish engulfing patterns at the upper Bollinger Band. This approach aligns with the observed volatility and trend divergence on HBARUSDT, leveraging high-probability setups during range-bound conditions.