Market Overview: Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) on 2025-10-03

• Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) traded between 0.2234 and 0.23015, closing at 0.22256 after opening at 0.22367.
• The price formed multiple bullish and bearish engulfing patterns, with bearish divergence in RSI signaling oversold conditions later in the session.
• Volume spiked in the midday and early evening, while turnover remained consistent with price action, showing no clear divergence.
• Bollinger Bands showed moderate expansion, with price hovering near the lower band during the final hours, indicating bearish pressure.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 0.2244 and 0.2268 acted as short-term support and resistance during key 15-minute swings.

The Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) pair opened at 0.22367 at 12:00 ET − 1 and reached a high of 0.23015 before closing at 0.22256 at 12:00 ET. Total trading volume over 24 hours was 139.3 million HBAR, and notional turnover amounted to ~$31.1 million, reflecting moderate activity in the pair.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a mix of bullish and bearish momentum, with key support levels emerging around 0.2244 and 0.2228. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 19:30 ET as the price moved from 0.23013 to 0.22945, signaling potential reversal. Later, a bullish engulfing pattern emerged near 0.2228 in the early hours, indicating some buying interest. The 0.2230–0.2234 zone appears to be a critical support area, with price testing it multiple times in the final hours.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period line, suggesting bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is below both the 100- and 200-period lines, reinforcing a broader bearish trend. The price remains below all major moving averages, suggesting that downward pressure may persist in the near term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line in the late afternoon and remained bearish through the close. RSI hit oversold territory below 30 in the last two hours, suggesting a potential short-term bounce could be on the cards. However, the divergence between rising price and declining RSI in the mid-session indicates weakening bullish momentum. Traders may watch for a rebound above 0.2235 for confirmation of a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion during the afternoon and evening hours, with price frequently trading near the lower band, especially after 0.2230. This suggests that bearish pressure has been relatively consistent over the last 12 hours. The narrowing of the bands earlier in the session hinted at a potential breakout or breakdown, which was confirmed as price broke below the 0.2230 level toward the end of the day.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the midday and early evening, reaching a peak of ~5.9 million HBAR at 14:15 ET, coinciding with a sharp drop in price to 0.22075. Notional turnover also increased during this period, indicating that the price drop was supported by strong volume, reinforcing the bearish move. However, volume dropped off significantly in the final hours, suggesting fading momentum. The close near the daily low without significant volume may indicate a lack of conviction in the current bearish trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, key Fibonacci retracement levels at 38.2% (0.2244) and 61.8% (0.2268) acted as minor support and resistance, respectively. Price bounced off both levels a few times but ultimately broke below the 0.2244 level in the last few hours. On the daily chart, the 0.2225 level is near the 61.8% retracement of the recent bearish move, suggesting this could be a critical support for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the presence of multiple bearish engulfing patterns, oversold RSI conditions, and a close near the 24-hour low on declining volume, a potential short-term bounce may present a trading opportunity. A backtest strategy could involve entering a long position if price rebounds above 0.2235 with a stop loss below 0.2228. A 1:2 risk-to-reward target at 0.2250 may provide a reasonable profit target based on Fibonacci levels and the 20-period MA as dynamic resistance. The combination of RSI divergence and a potential reversal candle at 0.2228 supports this approach, with volume confirmation suggesting the move may gain traction if buyers step in.