Market Overview for Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) – 2025-09-20

• HBARUSDT surged to a 24-hour high of $0.24696, driven by late-session volume and bullish momentum.
• Price retested key support levels near $0.2367–0.2370 and formed a bullish reversal pattern during early ET hours.
• Volatility expanded significantly during late afternoon to early evening, with Bollinger Bands widening.
• RSI reached overbought levels by midday, while MACD showed a bullish crossover confirming renewed upward thrust.
• Notional turnover spiked during the final 3 hours, confirming accumulation in the upper range of the 24-hour move.

Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) opened at $0.23837 at 12:00 ET-1 and closed at $0.24487 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-20. The 24-hour high was $0.24696, and the low was $0.23673. Total volume across the period was 38,069,591.0, with notional turnover amounting to $9,367,314. The session saw a clear breakout from prior congestion levels and a strong accumulation phase into late ET hours.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a clear bullish breakout from a tight range between $0.2370–0.2400 early in the session, followed by a sharp upward thrust. A strong bullish engulfing pattern formed during the 05:00–05:15 ET timeframe, signaling renewed buyer dominance. Resistance levels at $0.2420–0.2430 were tested twice, with the final push breaking through to a new high. The pattern suggests a continuation bias unless price closes below $0.2390, which would invalidate the bullish setup.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA early in the session, confirming the resumption of bullish momentum. The 50-period MA acted as dynamic support during the early ET pullback, while the 200-period MA on the daily chart remains well below the current price, indicating a long-term uptrend. A potential consolidation phase may occur if price fails to close above the 100-period MA at $0.2410.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into positive territory by 05:00 ET and remained strong throughout the session, with a final reading of 0.0025 at 12:00 ET. The histogram expanded during the breakout phase and began to contract slightly in the final hours, suggesting potential exhaustion. RSI reached overbought levels above 70 by 06:00 ET and remained elevated, indicating continued bullish pressure but with risks of a near-term pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the late afternoon to early evening session, with the upper band reaching $0.2475 and the lower band at $0.2360. Price action spent the majority of the session near the upper band, suggesting strong buyer participation. A contraction in volatility and a return to the middle band could indicate a potential pause in momentum, although current conditions favor further expansion.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the final three hours of the session, particularly in the 15:00–15:15 ET timeframe, when the largest notional turnover occurred at $0.24696. This volume confirmed the breakout rather than suggesting a trap. A divergence between price and volume was not observed, which reinforces the credibility of the upward move.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent downward swing from $0.24696 to $0.23673 is at $0.2414, which held as support during the consolidation phase. The 38.2% level at $0.2443 also coincided with a key resistance-turned-support zone. A break above the 161.8% extension level at $0.2506 could signal an aggressive continuation of the current trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy involves entering long positions on HBARUSDT when the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart, combined with RSI below 30 and volume increasing by 50% from the 10-period average. This strategy would have triggered an entry at 05:00 ET on 2025-09-20, coinciding with the breakout phase. A stop-loss would be placed below the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.2414, and a take-profit at $0.24696—matching the high reached by the end of the session. This setup aligns with the observed breakout confirmation and offers a favorable risk-reward profile for short-term traders.