Market Overview: Harvest Finance/Tether (FARMUSDT) – October 3, 2025

• FARMUSDT opened at $28.03, touched a high of $28.60, and closed at $28.10, down from the prior 24-hour high.
• Price broke below a key 15-minute support at $28.31, with bearish momentum picking up after 8:00 PM ET.
• Volatility expanded overnight, with a 2.4% price drop in the final 3 hours, while turnover surged during the break.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions before 00:00 ET and later moved into oversold territory by 10:00 AM ET.
• Bollinger Bands showed a contraction before 02:00 ET, followed by a breakout to the downside in the morning session.

Harvest Finance/Tether (FARMUSDT) opened at $28.03 on October 2, 2025, touched a high of $28.60, and closed at $28.10 by 12:00 ET on October 3. The 24-hour trading period saw a total volume of 11,656.12 FARM and a notional turnover of approximately $325,824 (assuming average price). The pair displayed bearish bias after a short-lived bull breakout, with a significant selloff after 8:00 PM ET.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a bearish engulfing pattern around the $28.50 level, signaling a potential reversal after a rally. A key support at $28.31 was breached in the early morning, followed by a continuation to the next support at $28.05. A doji appeared near $28.15 around 03:00 ET, indicating indecision. The low at $27.91 marked a possible short-term bottom, though a retest appears likely.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA crossed below the 50-period SMA in the late morning, forming a death cross that confirmed bearish momentum. Daily moving averages showed the 50-period SMA at $28.40, above the 200-period SMA at $28.25, suggesting a mixed outlook. Price action, however, has since moved below the 50 SMA, hinting at a potential shift in trend.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bearish crossover around 02:00 ET, with the histogram shrinking slightly after 05:00 ET but remaining negative. RSI dropped sharply from overbought (75) at 00:00 ET to oversold territory (28) by 10:00 AM ET, indicating exhausted bullish pressure. The bearish divergence between price and RSI during the selloff suggests continued downside potential unless a strong bullish reversal forms.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility contracted between 02:00 and 04:00 ET, with the bands narrowing to around 0.08% range. This was followed by a sharp breakout to the downside, with price dropping below the lower band by 08:00 AM ET. The current price sits just above the lower band, suggesting that further consolidation or a rebound may be due.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the bearish breakout in the early morning, with over 1,100 FARM traded at the $28.36 level. Turnover also surged during the selloff, confirming the bearish sentiment. The volume-to-price divergence in the morning session—where volume remained high despite a pullback—suggests lingering selling pressure. A lack of volume in the recent bullish bounce implies weak conviction for a reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

A 15-minute swing from $28.03 to $28.60 saw a 61.8% retrace at $28.31, which was breached. On the daily chart, a key 38.2% retracement level is at $28.20, which was tested but failed to hold. The 61.8% level at $27.94 may act as a near-term floor, although a test is likely in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current technical setup, a potential backtesting strategy could be to enter short positions on a break below the $28.20 level, with a stop loss placed above $28.31 and a target of $27.94. This setup would aim to capitalize on the bearish momentum confirmed by the engulfing pattern, RSI divergence, and MACD bearish crossover. Traders could also consider a long entry on a retest of the $27.94 level, targeting a bounce toward $28.15, provided the RSI shows a bullish divergence. This hypothesis aligns with the observed price behavior and recent volatility signals.

Forward-looking, FARMUSDT appears to be in a consolidation phase after the recent selloff, with key support levels ahead likely to dictate near-term direction. A break below $27.94 could signal a deeper correction, while a strong rebound above $28.25 may indicate a resumption of bullish momentum. Investors should remain cautious of potential volatility and monitor volume patterns for confirmation.