Market Overview: Harvest Finance/Tether (FARMUSDT)

• Price rallied from 27.51 to 28.24 on heavy late-day volume, forming a bullish continuation pattern.
• Momentum remained strong with RSI peaking above 70, suggesting overbought conditions.
• Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened, and price traded above the 50-period moving average.
• On-chain turnover spiked during the final 4–5 hours, confirming the upward move with strong buyer participation.

The FARMUSDT pair opened at 27.57 on 2025-09-15 12:00 ET and closed at 28.24 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-16. The 24-hour high reached 28.29, and the low dropped to 27.51, with total trading volume of 7,350.914 and notional turnover of $204,075.34. The price trended upward throughout the session, with strong accumulation and volume surges in the final 4.5 hours.

Structure & Formations

Price found initial support at 27.51, which held on multiple occasions, and pushed higher with a key breakout above 27.85. A Bullish Engulfing pattern formed around 20:30 ET, followed by a higher high at 28.29 on strong volume. A Hammer candle appeared at 08:15 ET, signaling a reversal from a previous decline. Resistance levels include 28.00, 28.15, and 28.30, while 27.80–27.85 has acted as strong internal support in the last 6 hours.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were bullish, with price closing above both. The MACD crossed above zero and remained in positive territory, indicating strong bullish momentum. The RSI topped 70 around the 8:00–9:00 ET period, signaling overbought conditions, though price continued to rise without a pullback. This suggests a strong short-term trend with limited near-term selling pressure.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly in the last 6 hours of the session, with Bollinger Bands widening to reflect the aggressive price action. Price traded above the upper band for a period during the 9:00–10:30 ET window. The contraction observed between 1:00–3:00 ET preceded the breakout, a classic sign of consolidation before a directional move. The current wide band suggests traders should expect a continuation or sharp reversal rather than consolidation.

Volume and Turnover

Volume surged in the final hours, particularly after 08:15 ET, with the largest 15-minute candle showing 740.223 volume and a price jump from 27.87 to 27.91. Notional turnover spiked during the 13:30–14:15 ET period as well, with over $40,000 in turnover during that window. The increase in volume and turnover has been in line with the upward price move, offering confirmation rather than divergence. Price and volume acted in unison, reinforcing the bullish bias.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key 15-minute swing from 27.51 to 28.29, the 38.2% retraction level sits at 27.93, the 50.0% at 27.90, and the 61.8% at 27.86. These levels have been tested multiple times in the past 12 hours, suggesting possible consolidation zones if the upward trend pauses. On the daily chart, retracement levels from the prior major leg lower are at 27.70, 27.55, and 27.40, with the former showing resistance in the last 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong momentum and volume confirmation observed, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a trend-following long entry on a 15-minute chart using a Bullish Engulfing pattern with a confirmation bar above the engulfing candle's high and a stop below the engulfing candle's low. A trailing stop could be placed 0.5% below the entry price, with a target at the nearest Fibonacci level or a 10% profit cap. This approach would align with the current structure and could be backtested on historical 15-minute FARMUSDT data to assess its viability under similar volatility conditions.