Market Overview for Harvest Finance/Tether (FARMUSDT) - 2025-11-08

Summary
• Price fluctuated between $22.73 and $24.56 in 24 hours, closing near 22.97.
• Momentum shifted from bullish to bearish, with MACD and RSI indicating overbought conditions.
• Volatility expanded in the early hours, with volume spiking on sharp downward moves.
• Key support around $22.70–22.80 and resistance near $23.40–23.50 appear significant.
• Divergences between volume and price suggest cautious positioning ahead of next 24 hours.

Price Action and Structure

Harvest Finance/Tether (FARMUSDT) opened at $22.73 (12:00 ET-1) and reached a high of $24.56 earlier in the 24-hour period before closing at $22.97 (12:00 ET). The price action showed a strong bullish attempt during the early session, forming a large bullish engulfing pattern at the peak before reversing into a bearish trend. A key bearish doji emerged at $23.82, signaling potential exhaustion in the upward move. A critical support zone developed near $22.70–22.80, where price has shown repeated resilience.

Moving Averages and Volatility

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA earlier in the day, suggesting bullish momentum at one point. However, by the close, the 20 MA had dipped below the 50 MA, hinting at a bearish turn. Bollinger Bands showed a wide expansion during the early hours, indicating heightened volatility, with price staying well within the upper band before retreating sharply. The 50-period MA on the daily chart remains above $23.50, suggesting that a longer-term bearish bias is emerging.

Momentum Indicators and Fibonacci Levels

The RSI reached 65–70 during the initial bullish phase, entering overbought territory, followed by a sharp decline to 35–40, confirming a bearish reversal. MACD crossed above its signal line briefly in the early hours, but the histogram has since contracted, reflecting reduced momentum. Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent swing high ($24.56) and low ($22.73) show key 61.8% and 38.2% levels at approximately $23.40 and $23.80, both of which appear to have acted as pivotal levels for price decisions.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Trading volume was most pronounced during the early hours when the price was moving higher, peaking at over 4,688 units in one candle. Notional turnover (volume × price) confirmed the strength of the initial move, but a divergence appeared as price dropped later in the session, with volume declining despite continued price weakness. This divergence could signal weakening conviction among buyers.

Forward-Looking View and Risk

The immediate outlook suggests consolidation around the $22.90–23.10 range, with a potential retest of the $23.40 resistance level expected if buyers regain control. However, a break below $22.70 may expose further downside toward $22.50–22.40, which appears to be a critical support cluster. Traders should remain cautious of increased volatility and potential short-term pullbacks if bearish momentum persists.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent overbought conditions and bearish divergence in volume, a backtest using the Golden-Cross MACD strategy—triggering buys at crossover and selling five trading days later—could provide further insight into the asset's behavior. Applying this strategy to the FARMUSDT pair would help assess whether the market responds favorably to such momentum-based entries, particularly in light of the volatility observed. This could also reveal if the recent bearish reversal is a temporary correction or part of a larger bearish phase.