Market Overview for Harvest Finance/Tether (FARMUSDT) on 2025-10-09

• Price declined from a high of $27.52 to a low of $26.40, closing at $26.69 after a 24-hour range.
• Momentum shifted from bullish to bearish, with RSI nearing oversold levels.
• Volatility increased mid-day before stabilizing in the latter half.
• A large-volume bearish reversal candle formed at 02:45 ET, signaling potential downside.
• Turnover remained relatively moderate despite price swings.

FARMUSDT opened at $27.07 on 2025-1008 12:00 ET, hitting a high of $27.52 and a low of $26.40 before closing at $26.69 at 2025-1009 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 10,955.99 FARM, with a notional turnover of approximately $293,305.

The 15-minute chart revealed a bearish shift in sentiment around 02:45 ET, as the pair printed a large-volume bearish reversal candle with a high of $27.47, open at $27.41, and close at $26.93. The candle was followed by a further pullback that tested key support levels below $27.00. A doji formed near $27.01, suggesting indecision, before the price continued lower. Support levels to watch include $26.80, where a bullish engulfing pattern emerged, and $26.60, which held during a late-day rally. Resistance remains at $27.20 and $27.45, where prior rejections occurred.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed FARMUSDT trading below both the 20-period and 50-period lines for most of the session, indicating bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed below the 100-period MA, a bearish signal, and the 200-period MA sits at $27.60, acting as a long-term resistance. MACD remained in negative territory with a bearish crossover, while RSI hit oversold levels around 25–30 near the close, potentially indicating a short-term bounce is due.

Bollinger Bands widened during the mid-session decline, reflecting rising volatility. The price closed near the lower band, a sign of weakness. Volume spiked between 02:45 and 04:45 ET, coinciding with the bearish reversal and pullback phase, but faded during the late-session rally. Notional turnover was largely aligned with price direction, with no major divergence observed. Fibonacci retracement levels from the key $26.40–$27.52 swing show 61.8% at $26.85 and 38.2% at $27.27, which may serve as pivot points in the near term.

A potential bounce above $27.20 could lead to a test of the 20-period MA and previous 15-minute resistance at $27.45. However, with RSI near oversold levels and volume drying up in the last 6 hours, the pair may consolidate near current levels before breaking either higher or lower. Traders should remain cautious, as volatility remains elevated and key support at $26.80 may not hold against a renewed bearish wave.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtest strategy for FARMUSDT could involve entering a short position on a confirmed break below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $26.85, with a stop-loss above the 50-period MA and a take-profit target at the 38.2% retracement level of $27.27. This approach would align with the observed bearish bias in moving averages, MACD, and candlestick patterns. Given the moderate turnover and recent volume spikes, this strategy could work best when combined with a volatility-based filter to avoid false breakouts during low-volume periods.