Market Overview for Harvest Finance/Tether (FARMUSDT) on 2025-10-08

• Price action showed a volatile 24-hour range with a high of 27.13 and a low of 26.60.
• Momentum oscillated with RSI briefly peaking above overbought and retreating below oversold levels.
• Volume spiked during key price reversals, especially in the 17:00–19:00 ET window.
• Bollinger Bands reflected a moderate expansion, with price trending near the upper band during the late session.
• No clear consolidation pattern formed, suggesting short-term indecision.

The 24-hour session for Harvest Finance/Tether (FARMUSDT) opened at 26.86 on October 7 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 27.13, a low of 26.60, and closed at 26.96 at 12:00 ET. Total volume amounted to 19,228.17 FARM, and turnover was approximately $516,349. The price moved within a relatively tight range despite several sharp intraday corrections.

Structure and formations reveal a series of key support levels around 26.60–26.65 and resistance at 27.03–27.07. A strong bearish engulfing pattern formed during the 19:00–19:15 ET window, while a bullish reversal was observed at 20:45–21:00 ET. The price did not form any strong doji or reversal candles after 21:00, suggesting that momentum shifted without clear consensus.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart suggest a mixed picture: the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA in the morning, signaling a temporary bullish bias, but the 50-period MA remained below the 100-period MA on the daily chart, hinting at a longer-term bearish trend. Price has oscillated around the 20-period MA throughout the session, with several retests of key levels failing to break out decisively.

The RSI indicator showed a strong overbought spike near 75 around 14:30–15:00 ET before retreating into oversold territory below 30 later in the session. This suggests that the market experienced both strong short-term buying and selling pressure. MACD showed a positive crossover in the early part of the session but quickly flattened out, indicating weakening momentum. Bollinger Bands widened during the most volatile period (17:00–19:00 ET) and narrowed slightly thereafter, signaling a potential shift in volatility.

Volume and turnover data showed increased activity during price reversals, especially during the 17:00–19:00 ET period, where several sharp price declines coincided with above-average volume. However, there was a divergence in the final 30-minute window where volume decreased while price rose, hinting at potential exhaustion in the upward move.

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the key swing from the high of 27.13 to the low of 26.60, we identified 26.87 (38.2%) and 26.74 (61.8%) as significant retracement levels. The price bounced off the 61.8% level in the early morning before attempting a move back toward the 27.13 resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy under consideration involves entering a long position on FARMUSDT when price breaks above the 20-period MA on the 15-minute chart and closes above it, with a stop loss placed below the most recent swing low. A short position is triggered when price closes below the 20-period MA, with a stop loss above the most recent swing high. The strategy targets a risk-reward ratio of 1:2, with a take-profit level aligned with the nearest Fibonacci retracement or key resistance level. While the price showed several instances of crossing the 20-period MA in both directions, the strategy would have generated mixed signals due to the high volatility and frequent retracements observed in the data. Testing this strategy over the past week would likely yield insights into its effectiveness in highly churning markets like FARMUSDT.