Market Overview for Harvest Finance/Tether (FARMUSDT) on 2025-09-25

• Price declined from $27.15 to $25.95 over 24 hours, with a bearish trend confirmed by volume and momentum.

• Volatility expanded during a sharp drop after 20:00 ET, with price breaching key psychological levels below $26.50.

• RSI and MACD indicated overbought conditions early on, but shifted into bearish territory after 20:00 ET.

• Bollinger Bands reflected a widening trend post 20:00 ET, signaling increased short-term uncertainty.

• Volume spiked during the selloff but failed to confirm strong support levels, hinting at possible further downside.

Harvest Finance/Tether (FARMUSDT) opened at $27.12 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET and closed at $25.95 at the same time on 2025-09-25. The price traded between $27.15 and $25.91 during the period, with a total trading volume of 1,996.97 and a notional turnover of $51,399.19. A significant sell-off emerged after 20:00 ET, leading to a sustained bearish trend.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a bearish trend, with several bearish engulfing patterns emerging from late evening into the overnight session. A key support level formed around $26.10–26.20, but failed to hold during the selloff, leading to a breakdown to $25.95. A doji appeared briefly at $26.30, suggesting indecision. Resistance levels at $26.50 and $26.80 appear intact and likely to hold in a bounce scenario, though bearish momentum suggests further downside to 25.70–25.80 may be in play.

Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages (20/50-period) on the 15-minute chart have trended lower, confirming the bearish bias. The 50-period line crossed below the 100- and 200-period lines on the daily chart, suggesting a broader bearish shift is underway. Price has remained below all key moving averages, with no sign of a reversal in sight.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish late in the session, with a strong crossover below the signal line after 20:00 ET. The histogram reflects a deepening bearish divergence. RSI entered overbought territory early in the session but fell rapidly to oversold conditions below 30, confirming the selloff and suggesting a lack of immediate support. However, RSI is expected to rebound from oversold levels in the short term, though a reversal is unlikely without strong volume confirmation.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly after 20:00 ET, with the price dropping below the lower band. This expansion indicates increased volatility and bearish momentum. The widening bands suggest uncertainty in the market, with price unlikely to return to the mean quickly. The lower band now sits near $25.90, offering temporary support, but a break below could see the price targeting $25.70–25.80.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the selloff, with several 15-minute intervals recording over 100 units. The highest volume spike occurred at 02:30 ET, when the price dropped from $26.62 to $26.53. However, this volume was not accompanied by a sharp price drop, suggesting a lack of conviction in the move. The price-volume divergence hints that the selloff may not be fully exhausted. Total turnover reached $51,399.19, with most of it occurring during the bearish phase.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from $27.15 to $25.91, key levels at 61.8% (~$26.25) and 38.2% (~$26.66) have shown resistance. The price briefly tested the 61.8% level before breaking down further. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the prior bull move sits near $26.90 and may offer resistance should the price attempt a short-term rally. The 38.2% level at $27.15 remains a distant ceiling for now.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy under consideration involves entering a short position when RSI crosses below 30 and MACD confirms a bearish crossover, with a stop-loss placed just above the recent 15-minute high. A target is set at the next Fibonacci level or a key moving average. Given today’s data, such a strategy would have triggered a short signal after 20:00 ET, aligning with the selloff and confirming the bearish momentum. While the strategy appears profitable in the context of today’s move, it is highly sensitive to volume and volatility. A follow-up would involve testing the strategy across a longer timeframe to assess its consistency.