Market Overview: Harmony/Tether (ONEUSDT) – September 20, 2025

• ONEUSDT traded in a tight range for most of the 24 hours before surging to a high of $0.01062.
• A bullish breakout above the 0.01058 level was confirmed with strong volume in the final candle of the session.
• Volatility expanded in the last 3 hours, with price surging 0.7% amid above-average turnover.
• RSI hit overbought territory near 70, suggesting potential for a near-term pullback.
• Bollinger Bands showed a contraction earlier in the session followed by a sharp expansion.

Harmony/Tether (ONEUSDT) opened at $0.01043 on September 19 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.01053 the following day at 12:00 ET, with a high of $0.01062 and low of $0.01031. The 24-hour volume totaled 78,468,113.3 units with a notional turnover of $8,295,462.43. The pair showed a late rally, closing near the session high on strong volume and momentum.

Structure & Formations

The session began with consolidation between $0.01043 and $0.0105, forming a symmetrical triangle pattern. A bullish breakout from the triangle occurred around 15:00 ET, confirmed by a large bullish candle with a long lower wick and strong volume. This breakout suggested renewed buying pressure. Later, a bearish engulfing pattern formed at the high of $0.01062, hinting at possible near-term resistance. A notable 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.01053 aligned closely with the close, indicating some short-term support.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were in bullish alignment, with price above both. On the daily timeframe, the 50/100/200-period moving averages showed a flattening trend, but price remained above the 50-day MA, suggesting continued positive bias. The 50-day MA is currently at $0.01048, acting as immediate support if the breakout proves short-lived.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive around 15:00 ET, confirming the breakout and showing sustained momentum into the close. The RSI surged to 71 by the final hour, entering overbought territory, suggesting the pair may consolidate or retrace in the near term. The combination of strong MACD and overbought RSI implies caution in short-term long positions, with a likely test of $0.01053–$0.01055 as immediate support.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a tightening contraction in the first half of the session, followed by a sharp expansion as the price surged. At the close, the price was positioned near the upper band, suggesting elevated volatility and a strong move. If the bands continue to expand, traders may expect increased price action and potential for a pullback toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.01048.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was relatively flat for most of the session until the final 4 hours, when it spiked significantly, particularly during the breakout and rally to $0.01062. Turnover increased in tandem with the price rise, suggesting genuine buying interest rather than a false break. A divergence appears between early volume and price: while volume was low, the price remained within a range, indicating a potential buildup of position taking ahead of the breakout.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the key 15-minute swing low at $0.01031 and swing high at $0.01062, the 38.2% level at $0.01053 and 61.8% at $0.01048 are key. The close at $0.01053 aligns with the 38.2% level, which appears to hold as support. The 61.8% level may act as a floor in the event of a pullback. On the daily chart, a larger swing from recent highs and lows shows the $0.01048 area as a key area for near-term support.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy for ONEUSDT could focus on breakout entries from defined consolidation patterns, such as the symmetrical triangle observed on the 15-minute chart, with entries above the upper boundary and stops below the lower. A 2:1 risk-reward ratio using the 61.8% and 38.2% Fibonacci levels as profit targets was effective in past scenarios. Given today's volume confirmation and RSI overbought condition, it is prudent to wait for a consolidation or pullback before reentering long positions. Short-term traders may benefit from a mean reversion approach if the price retraces into the $0.01048–$0.01053 range.

Looking ahead, ONEUSDT may consolidate near the $0.01053 level or face a pullback toward $0.01048. While the breakout appears genuine, traders should monitor volume and RSI for signs of exhaustion or renewed strength. Risks include a sharp sell-off if the bearish engulfing pattern at the high gains momentum, or a continuation of the rally if buyers defend the 38.2% Fibonacci level.