Market Overview for Harmony/Tether (ONEUSDT)

• Price fell 8.7% over 24 hours, closing at 0.00562 with a low of 0.00559.
• Volatility surged during the 18:45–19:00 ET drop, where price fell 4.3% in one candle.
• Turnover spiked during the selloff but failed to confirm bullish follow-through.
• RSI approached oversold territory, suggesting potential near-term mean reversion.
• Key support at 0.0056 appears tested and may hold for the near term.

The Harmony/Tether (ONEUSDT) pair opened at 0.0061 on 2025-10-29 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 0.00632 before retreating to a 24-hour low of 0.00559. At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-30, it closed at 0.00562. Total volume reached 77.41 million ONE, with a notional turnover of approximately $442,674, highlighting a significant selloff in the latter half of the period.

Structure and formations show a breakdown from a 0.0062–0.00632 consolidation pattern into a bearish trend. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed during the 18:45 ET candle, confirming the shift in momentum. The 0.0056 level now appears critical, with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement aligning with this level from the 0.00618–0.00559 swing. A potential rebound or a break below would signal further directional clues.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have both crossed below price, indicating bearish momentum. The 50-period moving average on the daily chart is still above price, but the 200-period line is now in clear resistance. The MACD has turned negative with bearish divergence, and the RSI approaches oversold conditions, hovering near 25. These suggest that while the trend is bearish, a short-term bounce could be imminent.

Bollinger Bands have widened significantly during the sell-off, with price near the lower band at 0.00559, indicating heightened volatility and potential exhaustion of the downward move. Volume spiked during the 18:45–19:30 ET window but failed to follow up with a meaningful rebound, suggesting weak conviction in the short-term bottom. Divergences between volume and price may hint at a possible reversal or continuation depending on the next candlestick.

Backtest Hypothesis
The RSI-14 oversold backtest aims to evaluate the effectiveness of a 5-day holding strategy triggered when RSI dips below 30. Despite the internal error in retrieving RSI data, the observed price action near 0.00559 shows a potential oversold condition. A successful backtest would confirm whether this level historically offered a strong mean reversion opportunity for ONEUSDT. Given the current alignment of Fibonacci and Bollinger Bands, such a strategy may have merit, though it would require careful risk management due to the sharp downward move and thin liquidity near key support levels.