Market Overview for Harmony/Tether (ONEUSDT) – 2025-11-09

Summary
• Price opened at $0.00577 and closed at $0.00560, reflecting bearish consolidation.
• Volatility expanded mid-session with a high of $0.00598 and low of $0.00547, signaling indecision.
• Volume spiked to 9.5M at market high, but failed to sustain momentum, suggesting distribution.

Harmony/Tether (ONEUSDT) opened at $0.00577 on 2025-11-08 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.00598, and closed at $0.00560 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-09. Total 24-hour volume was approximately 88.2 million tokens, with notional turnover of roughly $519,000. The pair saw a bearish reversal pattern following a volatile mid-session push.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed multiple bearish engulfing patterns and a key bearish reversal candle at the session high (22:30–23:00 ET). A critical support level formed near $0.00557, where the price found a floor late in the session. A potential resistance zone exists between $0.00575 and $0.00580, with failed attempts to break above it reinforcing bearish sentiment.

Moving Averages and Momentum

The 20-period and 50-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart converged near $0.00572, suggesting a potential consolidation phase. The MACD crossed below the signal line mid-session, confirming the bearish momentum. RSI briefly entered overbought territory at 68 but quickly declined to 37, reinforcing the weakening bullish momentum.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened as the price tested key levels, with the high of $0.00598 reaching the upper band. The closing price at $0.00560 aligned with the lower band, indicating contraction and a potential bearish follow-through. The bands’ expansion during the mid-session rally reflects increasing volatility and uncertainty in positioning.

Volume and Turnover Divergences

The highest volume occurred during the early morning ET (22:30–23:00 ET), coinciding with the price reaching a 24-hour high. Notional turnover during this period was approximately $55,000, suggesting strong participation. However, the failure to maintain this level indicates a lack of follow-through, which could foreshadow further downside.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from $0.00585 (high) to $0.00547 (low), the price found initial support at 38.2% ($0.00568) and later at 61.8% ($0.00557), where it held overnight. The 23.6% retracement at $0.00575 is a watch level for near-term buyers.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recurring bearish engulfing patterns observed today and in recent sessions, a backtesting strategy could focus on shorting ONEUSDT on confirmation of a bearish engulfing candle (i.e., a body where the close is below the open, and the previous candle's close is inside the engulfing body). Holding for a 7-day period could evaluate the effectiveness of the pattern in a live setting. If we can obtain consistent Bearish Engulfing dates or standard OHLC data, we can proceed with this hypothesis and refine the strategy using volume and momentum filters to improve signal reliability.