Market Overview for Harmony/Tether (ONEUSDT) — 2025-09-27

• ONEUSDT formed a bullish reversal pattern after hitting a 24-hour low of $0.0091
• Price consolidated near $0.00917–0.00920, with RSI signaling easing downward momentum
• Volatility increased midday, but volume dipped in afternoon trading despite higher highs
• Bollinger Bands showed a contraction before expanding, hinting at potential breakout
• Total turnover reached $121.9 million, with volume concentrated in early and late trading

The ONEUSDT pair opened at $0.00913 on 2025-09-26 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.00917 on 2025-09-27 at 12:00 ET, trading between $0.00907 and $0.00936. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 68,942,894.5 ONE tokens, with a notional turnover of $121.9 million. Price action showed a bearish morning but reversed in the afternoon and evening, suggesting short-term buyers entered after a pullback.

Structure & Formations

Price touched a 24-hour low of $0.0091 at 16:00 ET but formed a bullish reversal pattern at $0.00913–0.00917 over the next 90 minutes. Key support levels emerged around $0.00917 and $0.0091, while resistance levels appeared at $0.00925 and $0.0093. A large bullish engulfing pattern formed between $0.00912 and $0.00927 at 17:15 ET, confirming a shift in sentiment. Price later consolidated in a tight range between $0.00916 and $0.00920 into the following morning.

Moving Averages & Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed above the 50-period MA at 17:15 ET, signaling a short-term bullish bias. The 50-period MA held at $0.00918–0.00922 as a dynamic support level. RSI rose from 28 (oversold) to 53, indicating easing downward momentum. MACD turned positive and formed a bullish crossover at 17:30 ET, reinforcing the possibility of a short-term rally.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Volatility reached a low of $0.00916–0.00920 range in the overnight hours, followed by a sharp expansion from 06:00 ET onwards, suggesting a period of indecision followed by increased interest. Price tested the upper Bollinger Band at $0.00925 during the early hours, then retested the lower band at $0.00916 during the morning, indicating a potential breakout attempt.

Volume & Turnover

Volume peaked at 11.2 million ONE at 17:15 ET as price pushed through the $0.00927 level. Despite this, afternoon volume declined significantly, despite price rising above $0.00930. This divergence suggests possible exhaustion in the buying wave. Turnover also followed a similar pattern, with the highest turnover at $0.00927–0.00930, followed by lower turnover as price consolidated. No clear divergence was observed between price and turnover after 06:00 ET.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key swing low at $0.0091 and high at $0.00936, 38.2% retracement (~$0.00924) and 61.8% retracement (~$0.00918) acted as key support and resistance levels. Price tested both levels twice in the 24-hour window, reinforcing their significance. These levels may dictate near-term direction, with a break above $0.00925 likely to target $0.00927–0.00930.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy utilizes a combination of RSI divergence, Bollinger Band breakouts, and volume confirmation to enter long positions during pullbacks. Given ONEUSDT's pattern of forming bullish reversals on oversold RSI and consolidating within the Bollinger Bands, this approach could be effective in capturing short-term bounces. A long entry on RSI bottoming at 28–30, confirmed by a breakout above the 20-period MA, followed by a stop loss below the 61.8% Fibonacci level, appears well-aligned with the observed price action.