Market Overview for Harmony/Tether (ONEUSDT) – 2025-09-26

• ONEUSDT opened at $0.00913 and reached a 24-hour high of $0.00927 before closing at $0.00912 at 12:00 ET.
• Price traded between $0.00882 and $0.00927, showing moderate volatility and a bearish close on the 24-hour chart.
• Volume surged at key resistance levels during late-ET trading, indicating potential price rejection.
• A bullish divergence in RSI and a retest of the 0.00910 level suggest possible short-term recovery.

Harmony/Tether (ONEUSDT) opened at $0.00913 on September 25, 2025 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $0.00927, a low of $0.00882, and closing at $0.00912 at 12:00 ET on September 26. Total volume was 85.2M with a turnover of $773.6K, indicating heightened interest during key price inflections.

Structure & Formations

Price action on ONEUSDT revealed a distinct bearish bias following the formation of a large bearish engulfing pattern around the 0.00905–0.00909 range, confirmed by a sharp close below the open. A key support level appears to have formed near $0.00895 after repeated bounces, with a possible resistance zone emerging between $0.00913 and $0.00917. A bullish pinocchio pattern formed near $0.00922–$0.00927 could signal a short-term reversal if volume increases on the next rally attempt.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (SMA20) crossed below the 50-period (SMA50) during mid-ET, reinforcing a short-term bearish bias. The 50-period moving average (SMA50) on the daily chart is currently at $0.00910, while the 100 and 200-period moving averages hover at $0.00907 and $0.00904, respectively. Price remains slightly above the 50SMA, but a break below $0.00905 could trigger further bearish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD on the 15-minute chart displayed a bearish crossover with a negative histogram, reinforcing the downward pressure. RSI reached oversold territory near 32 during the mid-ET drop, suggesting potential for a bounce. However, the RSI failed to break above 50 on the daily close, indicating ongoing bearish dominance. A sustained rebound in RSI above 50 could precede a short-term rally.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded in the 24-hour window, with Bollinger Bands stretching wider as price moved between the lower and upper bands. The 20-period Bollinger Bands showed a recent contraction near $0.00907–$0.00909, which may precede a breakout. Price closed near the upper band at the peak, but failed to sustain above it, hinting at a potential short-term pullback toward the midline or lower band.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the bearish move below $0.00910, with turnover peaking at $28M on the 14:15 ET candle. This suggests strong conviction among sellers. However, a volume increase on bullish candles near $0.00927 could signal renewed buyer interest. Divergences in price and volume were observed during the late-ET rally, suggesting caution in interpreting short-term bounces without confirmation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels were applied to the key swing high at $0.00927 and swing low at $0.00895. The 38.2% retracement sits at $0.00916, and the 61.8% at $0.00909. A close above $0.00916 could validate a short-term rally, while a break below $0.00909 may extend the downtrend. Daily retracement levels indicate a possible bounce near $0.00908 and a deeper support at $0.00903.

Backtest Hypothesis

For a potential backtest strategy, consider a mean-reversion approach triggered by RSI entering oversold territory (<30) and price testing the 20-period Bollinger Band lower bound. A long entry at the close of the 15-minute candle would be triggered if the next candle closes above the 50-period SMA with a volume surge above the 20-period average. A stop-loss would be placed below the last 5-period low, while the target takes profit at the nearest Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level. This setup aligns with the observed bearish reversal patterns and could be refined for intraday volatility and volume confirmation.