Market Overview for Hamster Kombat/Tether (HMSTRUSDT) on 2025-10-09

• Price fluctuated between 0.000612 and 0.000644, with bearish bias after peaking around 0.000642
• Volume spiked during the 0.000636–0.000642 rally but reversed with declining turnover
• RSI signaled overbought levels in the early part of the session, followed by bearish divergence
• Price broke key Bollinger Band support, signaling increasing bearish pressure
• 15-min chart showed bearish engulfing patterns, especially in the post-06:00 ET range

24-Hour Price & Volume Summary

At 12:00 ET - 1 on October 8, 2025, Hamster Kombat/Tether (HMSTRUSDT) opened at 0.000628. Over the next 24 hours, it reached a high of 0.000644 and a low of 0.000612 before closing at 0.000620 at 12:00 ET. The total volume traded was 483,871,812.0, with a notional turnover (amount × price) of approximately $250.8 million.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute candlestick chart revealed a series of bearish patterns, most notably a bearish engulfing pattern during the 06:15–06:30 ET and 02:45–03:00 ET sessions. A key resistance level appears to have formed at 0.000642–0.000643, where prices failed to close above on multiple occasions. A strong support level was tested and broken at 0.000636–0.000638 during the 04:15–04:45 ET and 08:30–08:45 ET periods.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both closed below the current price at 12:00 ET, suggesting a short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-day moving averages were not available for this specific pair, but the 15-minute indicators suggest a potential continuation of the downward trend if the 0.000628 level fails to hold.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD showed a bearish crossover during the 04:00–04:15 ET and 06:30–06:45 ET sessions, reinforcing the downward momentum. RSI briefly entered overbought territory at 75 during the 02:45–03:00 ET rally, followed by a divergence as prices continued to fall despite RSI moving lower. This suggests weakening bullish momentum and potential exhaustion of the short-term buyers.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the 04:30–05:00 ET and 07:00–07:15 ET periods, pushing prices outside the upper Bollinger Band, before contracting again in the 08:30–09:00 ET range. Price action has since stayed near the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting a continuation of bearish pressure. A breakdown below 0.000616 could confirm a new support level and open the door for a test of 0.000610.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 02:30–03:00 ET and 04:00–04:15 ET periods, coinciding with a price rally from 0.000632 to 0.000641. However, the following decline saw a contraction in volume, indicating a potential lack of conviction in the bearish move. Turnover remained high throughout the session, but a bearish divergence emerged in the second half of the day, where prices fell further while volume did not confirm the move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.000632 to 0.000641 and back to 0.000619, the 61.8% retracement level is at 0.000628, which aligns with the current price and a key support level. A breakdown below this level could push prices toward the 38.2% retracement at 0.000622, followed by the 23.6% at 0.000625.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could be designed around the observed bearish engulfing patterns and RSI divergences. For example, a short entry could be triggered when RSI falls below 30 after a prior overbought reading, combined with a bearish engulfing pattern forming below the 20-period MA. A stop-loss could be placed above the 61.8% Fibonacci level (0.000628), with a target near 0.000616. This approach would require careful validation with historical data to assess its profitability in different market conditions.