Market Overview: GRT/USDT — Volatility Wanes as Support Fails to Hold

• GRT/USDT closed lower at $0.06438 after a choppy 24-hour session.
• Key support at $0.06412 tested multiple times, with failed rebounds.
• Volatility declined post 08:00 ET, with volume and price diverging.
• A bullish engulfing pattern briefly emerged but failed to hold.
• RSI and MACD signal bearish momentum with overbought territory avoided.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-28, The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) opened at $0.06539, reached a high of $0.06710, and closed at $0.06438. The 24-hour low was $0.0635. Total volume amounted to 68,288,087, with notional turnover at approximately $4,456,639.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour OHLCV chart revealed a bearish bias, with key resistance failing to hold above $0.0667 and support at $0.06412 repeatedly tested. A potential bullish engulfing pattern emerged near $0.0645 but failed to sustain. A long-legged doji at $0.06455 signaled indecision.

Moving Averages and Momentum

The 20-period and 50-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart crossed in a bearish "death cross" configuration after 03:00 ET. Daily 50, 100, and 200-period SMAs remained in a downward alignment, reinforcing the bearish trend. MACD crossed below the signal line, while RSI hovered near 30, indicating oversold conditions but no immediate reversal signal.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a contraction phase starting at 09:00 ET, suggesting reduced volatility. Prices remained within the 2σ range, with the close of the 24-hour period hovering near the lower band at $0.06438. This suggests cautious bearish consolidation rather than breakout conditions.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed “Bullish-Engulfing & 0.06412-Support” strategy backtested poorly from 1 Jan 2022 to 28 Oct 2025, with a total return of -83.6% and an average trade return of -9.4%. The strategy's failure aligns with today’s failed support test at $0.06412 and the bearish engulfing pattern. Negative Sharpe ratio and high drawdowns suggest poor risk-adjusted returns, emphasizing the need for stricter risk management or strategy revision.

The near-term outlook for GRT/USDT suggests continued bearish pressure if the $0.06412 level is tested again. A retest of the $0.0650–0.0652 area may offer a short-term bounce, but a sustained break below $0.0641 could trigger a deeper correction. Investors are advised to monitor volume divergence and RSI for potential exhaustion signs.