Market Overview for Gravity/Tether (GUSDT)

• Gravity/Tether (GUSDT) closed at 0.01119 after a 0.01128 24-hour high and a 0.01107 low.
• A bearish divergence in price and turnover suggests weakening bullish momentum.
• Key support around 0.01118 and resistance near 0.01126 defined the 15-minute structure.
• High volume in early morning trading amplified the sell-off from 0.01138.
• RSI and MACD indicate overbought conditions have reversed into bearish momentum.

Gravity/Tether (GUSDT) opened at 0.01128 at 12:00 ET−1 and traded to a high of 0.01138 and a low of 0.01107, closing at 0.01119 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume totaled 18,733,159.0, with a notional turnover of $211,369.25. The pair has shown signs of weakening bullish momentum amid diverging volume and price action.

Structure & Formations

Over the 15-minute timeframe, key resistance levels were identified around 0.01136–0.01138 and 0.01142–0.01143, with the latter failing to hold during the overnight session. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 04:45–05:00 ET, confirming a reversal in sentiment. The price also tested and failed to hold above 0.01138, indicating strong bearish control. On the support side, 0.01118 and 0.01113–0.01114 appear to be critical levels based on repeated bounces and rejections. A potential bullish reversal could occur if the pair finds support near 0.01113, forming a possible hammer or bullish engulfing pattern.

Moving Averages & Bollinger Bands

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended downward, reflecting bearish momentum. The price remained well below the 20-period MA, reinforcing bearish bias. Bollinger Bands expanded during the early morning sell-off, suggesting increased volatility. The price traded close to the lower band around 05:00 ET, indicating potential oversold conditions. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 MA lines all trend downward, and GUSDT has yet to cross above any of them, signaling a continuation of the bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative in the early morning and remained in bearish territory, confirming the downward trend. The RSI dropped below 50 and approached oversold levels near 30 during the sell-off, suggesting a potential bounce. However, a divergence between the RSI and the price during the early morning sell-off indicates weakening bullish conviction. Both indicators suggest that while a short-term rebound may occur, the broader bearish trend is likely to persist.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the overnight sell-off, especially between 04:45–05:00 ET, when the pair dropped from 0.01126 to 0.01119. Notional turnover spiked in this period as well, indicating strong bearish participation. However, as the price approached oversold levels, volume declined, hinting at a potential reversal. The divergence between price and turnover during the sell-off suggests that buyers may be stepping in to absorb the selling pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 0.01107–0.01142 swing, the 61.8% retracement level is at 0.01126 and the 38.2% level is at 0.01120. The pair has found temporary support near 0.01118–0.01119, below the 38.2% level, suggesting bearish continuation. Daily-level Fibonacci retracements suggest that any rally should be seen as a countertrend move, with the 0.01113 level acting as a potential near-term floor.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current bearish structure, a potential backtesting strategy could focus on shorting GUSDT when the price breaks below the 0.01120 Fibonacci level and retests it as resistance. Stops could be placed above the 0.01126–0.011265 range, with targets at 0.01113 and 0.01109 based on key Fibonacci and support levels. A confirmation of the bearish bias would require a close below 0.01118 and a sustained move toward 0.01113. This setup could also be enhanced with a RSI divergence filter to avoid false breakdowns and with a volume filter to confirm strong bearish participation. While the strategy appears robust for short-term bearish bets, it assumes a continuation of current trends and may fail if a bullish reversal occurs at key support levels.