Market Overview for The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT): September 24, 2025

• The GRTUSDT pair formed a bullish recovery from a low of $0.0834, closing near the session high of $0.0854 on strong late-day momentum.
• Volatility expanded significantly overnight, with volume surging to over 1.69 million contracts during a key downswing.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions near 70, while Bollinger Bands indicated price was approaching the upper band, suggesting a possible retracement.
• A 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 06:00 ET, followed by a strong push above $0.0850.
• Turnover and volume diverged briefly in early morning, hinting at potential distribution pressure before a late rally.

Market Summary

The GRTUSDT pair opened at $0.0838 on September 23, 12:00 ET, and closed the 24-hour window at $0.0846 on September 24, 12:00 ET. The session high reached $0.0858, and the low fell to $0.0822. Total volume across the period was 21.39 million contracts, with a notional turnover of $1,794,800. The price action was driven by a late-day bullish reversal, with significant volume surges and a clear attempt to reclaim key resistance levels.

Structure & Formations

Price initially consolidated between $0.0836–$0.0846 before a sharp selloff to $0.0822 at 04:15 ET, forming a long bearish shadow. A bullish recovery followed, with a 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern emerging at 06:00 ET and a strong rally through the session. A bearish doji appeared at 11:45 ET, hinting at potential resistance at $0.0851. The $0.0836–$0.0838 level acted as strong support, with price bouncing twice from this area.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (SMA) moved above the 50-period MA in the final 4 hours, forming a golden cross that signaled bullish momentum. Daily indicators showed the 50-period MA at $0.0842 and the 200-period MA at $0.0838, suggesting the pair remains in a short-term bullish trend above its key moving averages.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line around 06:00 ET, confirming a bullish crossover ahead of the late rally. RSI climbed toward overbought levels (70) in the final 3 hours, indicating a possible short-term pullback. A bearish divergence emerged in RSI during the selloff on the 04:15 candle, but was quickly negated by strong volume-driven buying.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly during the 04:15–05:00 ET selloff, with price breaking below the lower band. By 06:00 ET, the bands had contracted slightly, with price sitting near the upper band again during the rally. This combination of expansion and retesting of the upper boundary suggests increasing short-term volatility and a potential for a reversal or pullback in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged to over 1.69 million contracts at 04:15 ET during the selloff, with a notional turnover of $142,300. A divergence appeared during the 04:30–05:00 ET rally, where volume remained subdued despite price gains, hinting at possible profit-taking or distribution. In the final hours, volume and turnover aligned with bullish price action, reinforcing the late-day recovery.

Fibonacci Retracements

The swing low at $0.0822 and swing high at $0.0858 formed a 38.2% retracement at $0.0843 and a 61.8% retracement at $0.0847. The current close at $0.0846 aligns closely with the 61.8% level, suggesting a possible pause or reversal before further upside. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement from the recent downtrend is at $0.0841, currently acting as support.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern and golden cross in moving averages, a potential backtesting strategy would involve entering a long position at the open of the candle following the engulfing pattern, with a stop loss just below the previous low of $0.0836. A take-profit target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level ($0.0847) or the RSI overbought trigger ($0.0850) could be used for exits. This approach could be tested over multiple 15-minute setups to validate its consistency in similar price environments.