Market Overview for The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) – October 9, 2025

• The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) rose to a high of $0.0846 before consolidating near $0.0831–$0.0834.
• Momentum shifted after 18:00 ET as bears capped price at $0.0841 and drove a sharp drop into the overnight session.
• Turnover remained elevated during the bull phase but diverged sharply in the final 6 hours, signaling potential bear confirmation.
• A key support at $0.0831–$0.0832 was tested twice, with a potential break likely to accelerate the bear trend.

Opening Summary

At 12:00 ET – 1 on October 8, The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) opened at $0.0825, reached a 24-hour high of $0.0846, and a low of $0.0814. At 12:00 ET on October 9, the pair closed at $0.0817. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 31,565,400 GRT, and notional turnover amounted to $2,569,236.

Structure & Formations

Price formation showed clear phases of bullish and bearish control. A strong bullish wave pushed the price from $0.0832 to $0.0846 over the 17:00–19:00 ET period, forming a series of higher highs and higher lows, capped by a large bullish candle at 17:30 ET. However, a bearish engulfing pattern formed at $0.0841 around 19:00 ET, which signaled a reversal. The price continued to drift lower, with a key bearish breakdown below the $0.0833 level occurring overnight. A potential bear trap may have been triggered at $0.0834–$0.0835 after a failed rebound.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed in a bullish direction during the afternoon, reinforcing the short-term upward momentum. However, as the bearish phase intensified after 19:00 ET, the 20-period MA began to cross below the 50-period MA, forming a potential death cross. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits at $0.0838, while the 200-period MA is at $0.0834, suggesting that further support is limited near $0.0832–$0.0833.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the zero line during the afternoon, confirming bullish momentum, with the histogram showing strong positive divergence. However, by 21:00 ET, the MACD line began to trend downward, signaling waning momentum. The RSI rose to 65 during the bullish phase, indicating overbought conditions. It then dropped sharply to 38 by the close, entering neutral territory, suggesting that bears have taken control.

The combination of a bearish MACD crossover and declining RSI may signal a continuation of the downward trend if the price remains below $0.0835.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the bullish phase, with the upper Bollinger Band reaching $0.0846 and the price touching the band at 17:30 ET. After the bearish reversal, volatility contracted as the price moved closer to the middle band. By the end of the session, the price was trading near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating oversold conditions. If the price breaks below the $0.0831–$0.0832 range, it could trigger a further move toward the lower band at $0.0823.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the bullish phase, peaking at 906,030 GRT at 17:30 ET, and remained elevated through 19:00 ET. However, as the bearish phase took hold, volume declined sharply, even as the price continued to fall. This divergence between price and volume suggests weakening bearish conviction or potential exhaustion in the short term. Notional turnover mirrored this trend, peaking at $75,722 at 17:30 ET and declining to $39,862 by the close.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the $0.0823–$0.0846 swing, the 38.2% level is at $0.0834 and the 61.8% level is at $0.0829. The price tested the 38.2% level twice without strong rejection, suggesting potential bearish follow-through. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the broader $0.0814–$0.0846 range sits at $0.0828, which could act as a short-term support if the trend continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could be to enter long positions on a bullish engulfing pattern forming above a key Fibonacci retracement level (e.g., 38.2% at $0.0834), with a stop-loss just below the pattern's low and a target at the next Fibonacci level or the upper Bollinger Band. For bearish signals, a short entry could be triggered on a bearish engulfing pattern forming near a key resistance level with volume confirmation. This approach aligns with the observed behavior on October 9, particularly the bullish engulfing at 17:30 ET and the bearish engulfing at 19:00 ET.

Outlook & Risk

Looking ahead, the immediate focus is on the $0.0831–$0.0832 support zone, where a bounce could trigger a short-term rebound. However, a break below this level may accelerate the decline toward the lower Bollinger Band at $0.0823. Traders should monitor the 20-period MA and RSI for signs of bullish reversal. Investors are cautioned to remain prepared for a continuation of the bearish trend unless a strong buy signal forms above $0.0835.