Market Overview: The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) 24-Hour Price Action on 2025-09-19

• The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) saw a sharp 24-hour decline, closing near intraday lows amid increased bearish momentum.
• Price broke below key support levels and formed bearish engulfing patterns during early morning trading.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with price trading in the lower third of Bollinger Bands on the 15-minute chart.
• RSI entered oversold territory but failed to trigger a clear rebound, indicating potential exhaustion.
• Volume surged during the downward leg, confirming bearish continuation pressure.

The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) opened at $0.0980 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-18 and reached a high of $0.0995 during the day before plunging to a low of $0.0940 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-19. The pair closed at $0.0940. Total volume across the 24-hour period reached approximately 43.9 million contracts, with notional turnover hitting $4.3 million, reflecting heightened activity during the bearish move.

Structure and formations on the 15-minute chart revealed bearish dominance. A key support level of ~$0.0965 was breached after a failed bounce, with a bearish engulfing pattern forming around 09:00 ET. A notable doji near $0.0970 suggested indecision, but it failed to halt the decline. A strong bearish trendline was drawn from $0.0995 to $0.0940, and key resistance at $0.0995 and support at $0.0940 appear critical for near-term price direction.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are both below current price levels, confirming bearish momentum. The 50-period MA on the daily chart also crossed below the 200-period MA, signaling a potential bearish bias. While the daily chart’s 100-period MA offers a potential short-term bounce target, the overall trend appears bearish.

MACD on the 15-minute chart showed negative divergence during the early morning selloff, with the histogram contracting as price continued to fall. RSI entered oversold territory (~28–30) but failed to trigger a rebound, suggesting exhaustion. Bollinger Bands widened during the decline, indicating heightened volatility, with price lingering in the lower third of the bands, a sign of bearish control.

Volume spiked during the morning session, particularly between 03:00 and 05:00 ET, coinciding with the most aggressive part of the decline. This volume confirmed the bearish move. Notional turnover mirrored volume spikes, with no clear divergence observed, reinforcing the bearish narrative.

Fibonacci retracement levels on the 15-minute chart show the 61.8% level at ~$0.0963 was a key failed support. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level (~$0.0980) could act as a bounce target if sentiment reverses. However, given the strength of the breakdown and volume confirmation, a continuation toward the 61.8% level (~$0.0930) is a plausible scenario.

The market appears to be in a bearish consolidation phase, with price finding support at the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Traders should monitor for a potential bounce or a break below current support at $0.0940. Caution is advised given the strong bearish momentum and low RSI levels that may not generate a meaningful rebound without a shift in sentiment.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described focuses on identifying short-term bearish breakouts using a combination of Fibonacci retracements, RSI divergence, and volume confirmation. The strategy assumes a trade is triggered when price breaks below a key Fibonacci level (e.g., 61.8%), RSI shows bearish divergence, and volume spikes to confirm the move. A stop-loss is placed above the nearest resistance (e.g., 50% or 61.8% level), and a take-profit target is set at the next Fibonacci level or a fixed risk/reward ratio of 1:2.

Based on today’s action, this strategy would have triggered a short signal around 03:30–04:00 ET, with a stop above $0.0965 and a target near $0.0930. While the setup appears valid, the effectiveness of this strategy over a longer time frame would require testing on a larger historical dataset to confirm its robustness and adjust risk parameters accordingly.