Market Overview: The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) 24-Hour Analysis

Summary
• The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) closed lower after a volatile 24-hour period.
• Key support held near 0.0551, but bearish momentum remains strong.
• Volume surged in early ET, suggesting significant selling pressure.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-11-06, GRTUSDT opened at 0.05648, reached a high of 0.05727, touched a low of 0.05354, and closed at 0.05420 by 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 20,588,231, with notional turnover amounting to $1,130,973. Price appears to have struggled against key resistance levels, suggesting ongoing bearish control.

Structure & Formations

GRTUSDT’s price action displayed a bearish engulfing pattern around the 20:00–21:00 ET timeframe, indicating a shift in sentiment toward sellers. Key support levels have formed near 0.0551 and 0.0545, with resistance at 0.0560 and 0.0567. A doji near 0.0552 suggests short-term indecision, though this did not halt the downward trend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA have both turned lower, with price below both. This reinforces bearish momentum. On the daily chart, price is below the 50DMA, 100DMA, and 200DMA, indicating a broader trend of declining buyer interest.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has crossed below the signal line, suggesting continued bearish momentum. RSI has fallen into oversold territory, reaching as low as 28. However, this may not guarantee a reversal, especially with volume skewed to the downside.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded throughout the session, with price touching the lower Bollinger Band multiple times. This reflects increased bearish pressure and a high-risk, high-reward setup for potential short-term bounces.

Volume & Turnover

The highest volume spikes occurred between 20:00 and 22:00 ET, when the pair was trading between 0.0563 and 0.0551. Notional turnover also spiked during this period, confirming the bearish move. However, recent volume has softened, suggesting exhaustion in the downward trend may be approaching.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fib levels from the recent high at 0.05727 to the low at 0.05354 show 0.0552 as the 38.2% retracement and 0.0545 as the 61.8% retracement. The 61.8% level has been tested twice and appears to be a critical support area that could either hold or break in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves a combination of RSI oversold conditions and Fibonacci retracement levels. A long entry could be triggered when price bounces above the 61.8% retracement (0.0545) with RSI crossing above 30 and volume increasing. A stop-loss would be placed below the next support at 0.0538. This approach may offer a risk/reward setup for a short-term countertrend trade, but it requires confirmation on the next bearish test of the level.