Market Overview for The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) on 2025-10-11

• The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) traded in a range between $0.03 and $0.0794, ending the 24-hour period with a bearish close.
• A sharp selloff from $0.078 to $0.0445 occurred mid-day, followed by a partial rebound in the latter half.
• Elevated volume was observed during the selloff, suggesting liquidation or profit-taking, though price failed to recover strongly.
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish momentum during the downturn, with no clear signs of overbought/oversold exhaustion.
• Volatility expanded during the mid-day sell-off, with price falling below key Fibonacci support levels.

The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) opened at $0.0788 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $0.0794 and a low of $0.03 before closing at $0.0669 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour period was approximately 303.75 million, while turnover amounted to roughly $21.05 million, reflecting heightened activity during the selloff.

Structure and formations in the 15-minute chart revealed a sharp bearish reversal from $0.078 to $0.0445, with several bearish engulfing patterns and a deep doji at $0.0445 suggesting exhaustion. The price found temporary support at $0.0532 and $0.0631 before stabilizing into a tighter range in the latter half of the day. Key resistance levels appear to be forming around $0.0669–$0.0674, with support at $0.0631–$0.0629. The overall structure suggests a possible continuation of bearish momentum unless a strong reversal pattern emerges.

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The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were both bearish, with price trading below both. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages were closely aligned in a downtrend, reinforcing the bearish bias. Bollinger Bands showed a sharp expansion during the selloff, with price briefly touching the lower band at $0.0445 and rebounding. Volatility has since contracted into a narrower range, indicating a possible consolidation phase ahead of further direction. RSI crossed into oversold territory during the selloff but failed to produce a strong rebound, suggesting a lack of buying interest. MACD confirmed the bearish momentum with a large negative histogram during the selloff.

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Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve using a combination of RSI and Bollinger Bands to identify oversold conditions and potential mean reversion. For example, an entry could be triggered when RSI falls below 30 and price touches the lower Bollinger Band, with a stop-loss placed below the next support level. During the 2025-10-10 selloff, such a trigger occurred around $0.0445, with a potential short-covering rally reaching $0.0631–$0.0636. A take-profit could be set at the 38.2% or 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. Given the current structure and weak RSI rebound, this setup may not yet offer a high-probability short-term trade, but it remains a candidate for further price deterioration.

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