Market Overview: The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) on 2025-10-10

• The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) traded in a tight range early before breaking higher, forming a bullish engulfing pattern near 0.0805.
• RSI shows moderate momentum with a peak at 61.8, while MACD remains positive, suggesting ongoing buyer interest.
• Volatility expanded after 22:30 ET as price surged to 0.0816, with a 20-period MA crossing above 50-period MA to signal short-term strength.
• Volume increased substantially during the late-night rally, confirming the breakout above 0.0810 but showing divergence in afternoon turnover.
• A key support level at 0.0805–0.0807 appears intact, with a Fibonacci 61.8% level coinciding with the 15-minute low at 0.0793.

Overview and Price Action

The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) opened at 0.0798 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.0827, and closed at 0.0792 by 12:00 ET the following day. The total 24-hour volume was 52.8 million contracts, with a notional turnover of $4.3 million. Price formed a bullish engulfing pattern on the 15-minute chart near 0.0805 and broke a key resistance at 0.0810. However, a large bearish candle formed in the afternoon, indicating selling pressure. Key support levels appear to be around 0.0805–0.0807 and 0.0793.

Structure and Candlestick Formations

The price action on GRTUSDT displayed a classic bullish engulfing pattern on the 15-minute chart near 0.0805, signaling a potential short-term reversal. However, a large bearish candle in the afternoon at 15:30 ET confirmed renewed selling pressure and a breakdown below the 0.0810 level. A doji appeared at 0.0812, hinting at indecision between buyers and sellers. Key support levels include the 0.0805–0.0807 range and the 0.0793 level, which acted as a psychological floor in the final hours of the session. Resistance remains at 0.0816 and 0.0820.

Moving Averages, MACD, and RSI

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed above each other during the early hours, suggesting a temporary bullish bias. The MACD remained positive for much of the day but showed a bearish crossover in the afternoon as selling pressure emerged. RSI reached a peak at 61.8 before declining, indicating moderate overbought conditions and a possible correction.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded after 22:30 ET as the price surged to 0.0816, pushing above the upper Bollinger Band. This breakout confirmed short-term bullish momentum, but the subsequent breakdown below the 0.0810 level led to a retest of the lower band. The bands contracted briefly in the early morning hours, indicating a consolidation phase before the final move.

Volume and Turnover Divergence

Volume spiked significantly during the late-night rally from 0.0805 to 0.0816, confirming the breakout. However, turnover in the afternoon showed a divergence as price declined but volume remained relatively low, suggesting weak conviction in the bearish move. A major divergence appeared around 15:30 ET, with price dropping to 0.0792 but volume failing to confirm a strong bearish signal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.0793 to 0.0827, the 61.8% level coincided with the 0.0793 level, which held as a critical support zone. The 50% and 38.2% levels were at 0.0810 and 0.0815, respectively, where price showed hesitation. Daily-level Fibonacci levels from 0.0776 to 0.0827 suggest a 38.2% retracement at 0.0809, which was briefly tested in the afternoon.

Backtest Hypothesis

For a backtesting strategy, consider a bullish setup when GRTUSDT forms a bullish engulfing pattern above a key support level, confirmed by a positive MACD crossover and rising volume. A stop-loss could be placed below the recent low of the engulfing pattern, while a target is set at the 38.2% Fibonacci level or the next resistance. This approach would aim to capture short-term momentum while managing risk with clear stop and target levels based on the technical structure observed in the past 24 hours.