Market Overview for The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) on 2025-10-04

• GRT/USDT fell from 0.0891 to 0.0843 over 24 hours, signaling bearish momentum.
• RSI dropped below 30 in early evening, suggesting oversold conditions developed.
• Volatility expanded post-19:00 ET with wide-ranging candles and higher volume.
• Price found a potential short-term support around 0.0856–0.0862 before resuming the decline.
• Bollinger Bands showed a contraction into the early morning, followed by a breakout to the downside.

The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) opened at 0.0881 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.0891, and a low of 0.0841 before closing at 0.0843 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume was 47.4 million, with a total turnover of approximately $4.04 million, reflecting moderate to strong trading activity during a bearish price session.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a bearish bias after 17:15 ET, with multiple bearish harami and dark cloud cover patterns forming. Key resistance levels were identified at 0.0878–0.0883, while the 0.0856–0.0862 range acted as a short-term support cluster. A doji formed near 0.0862 during the early morning, indicating indecision before the price broke down further.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart remained bearish, with price consistently closing below both. The 200-period EMA on the daily chart also showed a strong downward trend, reinforcing the bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained in negative territory throughout the 24-hour period, with bearish crossovers observed after 19:00 ET. RSI dipped below 30 after 01:00 ET, indicating oversold conditions, though it failed to trigger a strong rebound. This suggests that selling pressure remained intact, despite temporary exhaustion.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands contracted between 00:00 and 03:00 ET, signaling a period of consolidation. A sharp breakout to the downside followed, with price closing well below the lower band. This expansion in volatility highlights increased bearish conviction among traders.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the price decline from 0.0891 to 0.0841, especially between 17:15 and 19:30 ET. Notional turnover confirmed this bearish price action, with no divergence observed between volume and price. This suggests strong conviction in the downward move.

Fibonacci Retracements

A key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level was observed at approximately 0.0865, which failed to hold. Price then continued lower to 0.0856 before testing the 38.2% level at 0.0849. These levels provide insight into potential near-term support and resistance targets.

Looking ahead, GRT/USDT appears vulnerable to further downside pressure if 0.0840 is not defended. A rebound above 0.0862 could trigger short-term profit-taking, but without a clear shift in momentum, the bearish bias may persist. Investors should remain cautious, particularly around 0.0850, where a breakdown could accelerate the trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves entering short positions when price breaks below the 50-period SMA on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bearish divergence in the RSI and an expansion in Bollinger Bands. Stops are placed just above the most recent swing high, with take-profit targets aligned with Fibonacci 38.2% and 61.8% levels. Given today’s price action, such a strategy would have triggered a short entry after 17:15 ET and would have been held through the 0.0843 close. The volume profile and RSI divergence further validate this approach, suggesting it could be effective in similar bearish setups.