Market Overview for The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) on 2025-09-25

• The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) declined over 24 hours, closing at 0.0819 after opening at 0.0849, with key support tested near 0.0811.
• Momentum weakened as RSI fell below 30 and MACD turned negative, indicating bearish pressure.
• Volatility expanded in the early session before contracting, with price consolidating near the lower Bollinger Band.
• Notional turnover surged after 02:00 ET with a sharp drop, while volume remained elevated until 04:00 ET.
• A bullish engulfing pattern near 0.0831 and a doji at 0.0823 suggest potential for short-term reversal attempts.

The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) opened at 0.0849 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0819 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.085 and a low of 0.0811. The 24-hour trading volume was 34,199,874.0 and the total notional turnover amounted to 2,787.57. Price action displayed a clear bearish bias with a consolidation phase in the final hours.

Structure & Formations

Price tested key support levels near 0.082 and 0.0811, with a bearish breakdown confirmed by a piercing pattern at 0.0821 followed by a doji at 0.0823. A bullish engulfing pattern near 0.0831 may act as a short-term reversal signal. The descending triangle formation on the daily chart suggests potential for further bearish movement if 0.0811 is breached.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below the 20-period (0.0824) and 50-period (0.0827) moving averages. For the daily chart, the 50-period (0.0832), 100-period (0.0834), and 200-period (0.0837) moving averages all remain above the current price, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.

MACD & RSI

The RSI declined below 30, suggesting oversold conditions, but without a clear follow-through in price action to confirm a bounce. The MACD turned negative, with the histogram showing bearish divergence as price lows failed to reach previous MACD lows. This could signal that the bearish momentum is still intact despite the RSI suggesting a potential bounce.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded in the early session, pushing the upper band to 0.085 and the lower band to 0.0812. Price spent much of the session near the lower band, especially after 02:00 ET, indicating a period of consolidation and bearish exhaustion. A reversal could occur if price rebounds off the lower Bollinger Band.

Volume & Turnover

Volume remained elevated throughout the session, peaking at 1.89M around 02:45 ET, coinciding with a sharp drop in price from 0.0826 to 0.0821. Notional turnover spiked during the same period but declined later as price consolidation took hold. The divergence between price and turnover after 06:00 ET suggests weakening bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.085 to 0.0811, key levels include 0.0831 (38.2%), 0.0824 (50%), and 0.0819 (61.8%). Price is currently near the 61.8% level, which could act as a pivot point. A break below this level may target 0.0811, the 78.6% retracement.

Backtest Hypothesis

Using the technical signals identified—RSI < 30, MACD bearish crossover, and price at 61.8% Fibonacci—a backtest strategy could look for a bounce off these levels with a stop loss below 0.0811. A 15-minute candlestick close above 0.0824 would confirm a short-term reversal. If confirmed, a target of 0.0828–0.0831 may be in play, aligning with the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci levels.