Market Overview for The Graph/Tether (GRTUSDT) on 2025-09-22

• GRT/USDT declined from 0.0934 to 0.0843 on heavy volume and turnover
• Price broke below key 15-min support levels and 20/50-period SMAs
• RSI reached oversold territory while MACD turned bearish
• Volatility widened as price drifted below Bollinger Band midline
• Fibonacci 61.8% level at 0.0848 may offer temporary resistance

GRT/USDT opened at 0.0930 on 2025-0921 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.0935 and a low of 0.0808 before closing at 0.0843 on 2025-0922 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume was 108,619,107.0 GRT, with a total notional turnover of $9,113,805. The price trended downward with no major bullish reversal patterns during the period, suggesting bearish momentum.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute OHLC data shows a consistent bearish bias with key support levels failing to hold. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed at 0.0933–0.0927, followed by a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. A bearish inside bar at 0.0929–0.0929 and a doji at 0.0924–0.0924 signaled indecision among buyers. Key 15-minute support levels at 0.0930 and 0.0925 were tested but not recovered, while 0.0848–0.0852 may now serve as near-term resistance.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period simple moving averages on the 15-minute chart are bearishly aligned, with the price below both. A bearish crossover occurred around 0.0927–0.0923, reinforcing the downward trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is likely near 0.0935–0.0930, with the 200-period SMA above that, suggesting the longer-term trend is mixed but not strongly bullish.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD line crossed below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum. The histogram shows a steady decline in bullish strength, while the RSI dropped to oversold territory (below 30), indicating potential for a short-term bounce. However, RSI’s failure to cross above 40 suggests limited upside, and a bearish crossover in the MACD may continue to weigh on the pair.

Bollinger Bands

Price action remained in the lower half of the Bollinger Bands for most of the 24-hour period, indicating low volatility and bearish bias. A contraction in the bands occurred around 0.0880–0.0890 before a sharp expansion below 0.0870. The price closed near the lower band, reinforcing a continuation of the downtrend. A move above the midline (0.0855–0.0860) could indicate a short-term reversal, but this seems unlikely without a bullish catalyst.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the initial bearish break below 0.0925 and during the sharp selloff from 0.0880–0.0840, confirming the bearish move. Turnover rose sharply during these periods, with a large block of 19,251,222 GRT traded at 0.0808–0.0848, reinforcing the strength of the selloff. Price and turnover moved in tandem during the decline, offering no bearish divergence but no sign of a bottom forming either.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels applied to the 15-minute swing from 0.0930 to 0.0906 show 0.0923 as the 38.2% retracement and 0.0918 as the 61.8% retracement. On the daily chart, the 38.2% level (0.0930–0.0843) is near 0.0893 and the 61.8% level is near 0.0858. GRT/USDT closed near the 61.8% Fibonacci level on the 24-hour chart, which may act as a floor for the next few sessions.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest could evaluate a bearish breakout strategy triggered by a close below a key 15-minute support level (e.g., 0.0925) with confirmation from volume and MACD divergence. The trade would target the 61.8% Fibonacci level as a stop-loss and aim for a move to the next support level below (0.0840–0.0835). This hypothesis is supported by the strong bearish momentum seen in the 15-minute chart and the confirmation from volume and technical indicators like MACD and RSI.