Market Overview for Gnosis/Tether (GNOUSDT)

• Price surged from 120.00 to 124.04 before reversing sharply.• Strong momentum seen between 17:30 ET and 04:00 ET.• Volatility increased as price oscillated within 120.12–124.4 range.• Volume surged during key breakouts and pullbacks.• RSI and MACD suggest overbought levels and potential reversal risk.

Gnosis/Tether (GNOUSDT) opened at 120.00 at 12:00 ET–1 and reached a high of 124.40 before closing at 121.30 at 12:00 ET, with a low of 120.12 during the session. Total volume amounted to 1,945.34 units, and notional turnover stood at $243,401.79, reflecting active short-term trading activity. The market displayed a volatile yet pattern-driven structure.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick chart reveals a Bullish Engulfing pattern forming between 17:30 ET and 18:00 ET, confirming a strong reversal from a prior downtrend. This was followed by a Bearish Evening Star from 22:15 ET to 00:30 ET the next day, suggesting potential consolidation or reversal into a bearish phase. Key support levels are evident at 121.30–120.60, while resistance holds near 123.10–123.80. A Doji at 03:45 ET indicates indecision and potential exhaustion in the upside move.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA during the 17:30–18:30 ET window, signaling a bullish bias. However, the 50-period MA started to diverge from price action after 22:00 ET, suggesting weakening momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA appears to act as a key support level near 121.00, with the 200-period MA at 119.70 providing a longer-term baseline.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained above the signal line between 18:00 ET and 03:00 ET, reflecting sustained bullish momentum. However, the histogram began to contract after 04:00 ET, hinting at a bearish crossover. RSI peaked near 72 (overbought territory) around 02:00 ET but has since corrected to 56, suggesting a possible equilibrium. A further drop below 48 may indicate bearish pressure in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded as price moved from the lower band (120.00–121.00) to the upper band (123.00–124.40) between 18:00 and 02:00 ET. After peaking, price retreated into a contraction phase between 04:00 and 12:00 ET, with the midline at 122.30 acting as a temporary pivot. Price now sits near the lower half of the bands, which may signal a potential bounce or continued bearish pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during key price transitions, particularly at 17:30, 21:15, and 22:15 ET, with corresponding increases in notional turnover. The most significant single-volume spike occurred at 17:30 ET (128.871 units), confirming bullish conviction. However, volume during the bearish correction at 22:15 ET (20.549 units) was relatively low, suggesting weak conviction in the bearish move, a potential divergence to monitor.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the key swing high of 124.40 and low of 120.12, key retracement levels are 122.93 (38.2%) and 121.60 (61.8%), both of which were tested during the pullback. The 61.8% level held briefly at 04:00 ET before breaking again, indicating weakening bearish support.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy leverages Bullish Engulfing candlestick patterns, which were prominent in this 24-hour window (e.g., at 17:30–18:00 ET). A 3-day fixed-holding strategy was applied, consistent with the momentum seen on the 15-minute chart. The performance of such a strategy could be enhanced by incorporating stop-loss levels at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement or lower Bollinger Band. This approach aligns with the observed volatility and price behavior, offering a data-driven framework to evaluate trade entries and exits.