Market Overview for GMX/USDC (2025-10-13)

• GMX/USDC traded in a volatile range between $10.93 and $12.08, closing 3.3% higher.
• Momentum accelerated in early ET hours, with a sharp rally pushing price above $11.70.
• Volume spiked during key breakout attempts, but diverged during pullbacks below $11.50.
• Bollinger Band widening indicates elevated volatility, with price testing the upper band multiple times.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged around 04:30 ET, suggesting possible short-term follow-through.

Opening and Price Action

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-13, GMX/USDC opened at $11.46, having traded between $10.93 and $12.08 over the previous 24 hours, with a final close at $11.67. Total volume was 11,611.12 GMX, and the notional turnover was approximately $133,155.36. The price action shows a clear push higher in the early part of the session, followed by consolidation and a brief pullback before the session close.

Structure and Candlestick Patterns

The 15-minute chart reveals multiple significant candlestick patterns. A bullish engulfing pattern formed at 04:30 ET, where a large green candle followed a smaller red one, signaling a potential short-term reversal. A doji at 23:45 ET on October 12 indicated indecision, while a bearish hammer at 05:15 ET suggested resistance at $11.62. Key support levels appear to be forming near $11.33 and $11.45, while resistance clusters at $11.62 and $11.70.

Moving Averages

Short-term momentum was confirmed by the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, both of which crossed above the price during the morning rally. The 50-period MA acted as a floor around $11.45, supporting the price during pullbacks. On the daily chart, the 200-period MA is positioned well below the current price, reinforcing the notion of a bullish trend in a longer-term context.

MACD and Momentum

The MACD line crossed above the signal line early in the session, confirming the bullish momentum. The histogram showed a steady increase in positive momentum until 06:30 ET, where it began to contract slightly, suggesting that the upward thrust might be moderating. RSI remained in overbought territory for several hours, peaking at 74 during the $12.04 high, indicating a possible correction if buying pressure wanes.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the morning rally, with price repeatedly testing the upper band, particularly between 02:00 and 06:00 ET. This suggests increased volatility and strong conviction among buyers. The lower band acted as support during pullbacks, especially around $11.50 and $11.33. The recent tightening of the bands in the late session suggests a potential resumption of price movement.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked during key price moves, notably at $11.73 (234.917 GMX at 02:00 ET) and during the $12.04 high at 07:45 ET. These spikes were mirrored by increases in notional turnover, suggesting strong conviction. However, the volume during the pullback from $12.04 to $11.85 was relatively muted, indicating a lack of follow-through from sellers. This divergence raises questions about the strength of the recent rally.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the key rally from $10.93 to $12.04, the 61.8% retracement level is approximately $11.46–$11.50, which has acted as a magnet for price on several occasions. The 38.2% level at $11.64 also saw repeated tests, particularly during pullbacks. These levels provide strong reference points for potential support and resistance going forward.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong momentum and defined support/resistance clusters, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a breakout-based approach: entering long on a confirmed close above $11.70 (a key 50-period MA and Fibonacci level) and exiting on a close below $11.50 (a critical support level). Stop-loss could be placed below $11.45 to protect against a breakdown. This approach would aim to capitalize on the recent bullish momentum while limiting downside risk.