Market Overview for GMX/USDC on 2025-10-11

• GMX/USDC dropped sharply from $13.32 to $8.17 before a partial recovery to $10.62.
• Volatility surged with large candle ranges and diverging momentum as RSI bottomed near oversold levels.
• Volume spiked during the decline, but turnover diverged on the rally, suggesting uneven conviction.
• Bollinger Band contraction followed expansion indicated a potential turning point in trend behavior.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed near support at $10.50, hinting at a possible short-term bounce.

GMX/USDC opened at $13.23 on 2025-10-10 at 16:00 ET, reaching a high of $14.99 before plummeting to a low of $4.10. At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-11, the pair closed at $10.62. Total volume was 21,591.18 GMX, with a notional turnover of approximately $165,692.44 USDC.

The price action revealed a sharp bearish breakdown followed by a partial rebound into a congested range between $10.50 and $10.65. A key support level appears at $10.50, confirmed by a bullish engulfing pattern and a reversal candle at the lower Bollinger Band. Resistance remains at $10.70 and $10.75, with a bearish divergence in RSI suggesting a potential stall in the upward move. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed below the price during the drop but now appear to be catching up during the recent rally.

MACD turned positive during the rebound, confirming a short-term shift in momentum, but the histogram remains narrow, signaling cautious bullish sentiment. RSI has exited oversold territory but remains below overbought levels, indicating a potential for further consolidation. Bollinger Bands recently expanded from a period of contraction, a classic precursor to increased volatility, and the price is currently trading near the upper band, suggesting overbought pressure may emerge. The 50-period moving average on the daily chart is a critical line to watch, as a break above it could signal a broader trend reversal.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the major bearish leg ($13.32 to $8.17) now show $10.50 as the 61.8% level, where we’ve seen price stall and reverse. The 78.6% retracement is at $11.50, a potential next target if the rally continues. On the 15-minute chart, the key support at $10.50 appears to be holding, but the 38.2% retracement at $10.65 is a likely ceiling in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential strategy could involve entering long positions upon a bullish engulfing pattern at key Fibonacci levels, such as 61.8% retracement, with a stop-loss placed below the prior swing low and a target at the next Fibonacci level. A MACD crossover above the signal line would act as confirmation. Given the recent volume divergence on the rebound, however, this strategy should be adjusted to include a volume filter—only entering trades where volume increases on bullish reversal candles.