Market Overview for FTX Token/Tether (FTTUSDT)

• Price opened at 0.9249 and closed at 0.8237 after a sharp sell-off into the overnight hours.
• Volatility surged overnight with a 9.75% decline, reaching a low of 0.8157 on Sept 22.
• Turnover spiked over $280,000 at 00:45 ET as the price broke below key support levels.
• RSI hit oversold territory (~32), suggesting potential for a bounce, though momentum remains bearish.
• Volume expansion coincided with price lows, indicating strong conviction in the selloff.

Price Action and Key Metrics

FTX Token/Tether (FTTUSDT) opened at 0.9249 on September 21 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.8237 on September 22 at the same time, marking a significant decline of 10.9%. The pair hit a 24-hour high of 0.991 and a low of 0.8157. Total volume across the 24-hour window was approximately 1,875,858.94, with a notional turnover of roughly $1,363,602. The sharp sell-off overnight suggests a strong bearish impulse.

Structure & Formations

The price formed multiple bearish candlestick patterns throughout the session, including a strong bearish engulfing pattern at 00:45 ET, as the price moved from 0.8997 to 0.8876. A long-bodied bearish candle at 02:30 ET confirmed the breakdown of key support levels. A doji formed at 04:15 ET near 0.8480, indicating indecision after the sharp decline. Key support levels now appear to be at 0.8157 (24-hour low), 0.82, and 0.83, while resistance is likely found at 0.84–0.845 and 0.86.

Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below the 50 and 20-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 50-period MA sits at ~0.835, and the 20-period MA at ~0.84. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-period MAs are in a bearish crossover, with the price currently below both, suggesting medium-term bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands show significant volatility expansion after 00:45 ET, with the price moving well below the lower band. This suggests a potential mean reversion or consolidation phase could follow. As of the close, the price sits near the lower band at ~0.82–0.825, indicating a possible bounce or a continuation of the bear trend.

MACD and RSI

The MACD line remained negative for the entire session, confirming bearish momentum. The MACD histogram expanded in the negative territory during the overnight selloff, peaking around 02:30 ET. The RSI crossed into oversold territory (below 30), reaching ~32 at the close, which may indicate a potential short-term rebound. However, the bearish divergence between the RSI and price remains a concern.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically at 00:45 ET with a 269,435.91 volume print, coinciding with the price breaking below 0.8997. This was followed by a large turnover of $233,000. Later, at 02:30 ET, a smaller volume spike confirmed the breakdown of 0.87. However, subsequent volume remained moderate, suggesting consolidation or a lack of follow-through in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the major 0.991–0.8157 move, key levels to watch include the 38.2% level at ~0.875 and the 61.8% level at ~0.845. The price currently sits near the 61.8% retracement level, which could serve as a near-term support or a pivot point for a potential bounce. On the 15-minute chart, retracement levels for recent swings suggest a possible bounce between 0.825–0.835.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest hypothesis could involve using a combination of RSI (14), moving average crossovers (50 and 200-period), and Bollinger Band breakouts to identify entry and exit points. Given the current price action, a strategy could enter a short position when RSI crosses above 70 and the price breaks below the 50-period MA. A stop-loss could be placed above the 61.8% Fibonacci level (~0.845), with a target at the 50% retracement (~0.88). The volatility expansion observed overnight suggests that a breakout-based strategy could yield favorable results in the short term. The strong bearish volume and price action at key support levels could be used to validate the strategy’s signals.