Market Overview for FTX Token/Tether (FTTUSDT) on 2025-10-04

• Price action on FTT/USDT remained volatile, with bearish momentum intensifying after 19:30 ET.
• Key support tested near 0.903–0.906 as RSI approached oversold levels.
• Bollinger Band contraction observed during midday consolidation before a sharp drop.
• Volume surged in the final 6 hours, aligning with the price decline.
• No clear bullish reversal patterns emerged, with price closing near intraday lows.

Opening Narrative

At 12:00 ET on October 3, FTX Token/Tether (FTTUSDT) opened at 0.9198 and traded as high as 0.9363 before closing at 0.92 at 12:00 ET on October 4. The pair reached an intraday low of 0.9003. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 468,093.61, and notional turnover was approximately $428,524. The move highlights bearish sentiment, particularly in the last 6 hours of the reporting period.

Structure & Formations

The price action formed a series of bearish continuation patterns over the last 24 hours, including dark cloud covers and hanging man formations around 0.923–0.927. A significant bearish engulfing pattern formed at 0.9235–0.9209 around 19:45 ET. Key support levels to watch are 0.903 (tested twice), 0.906, and 0.910, while resistance is at 0.922 and 0.927.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, FTT/USDT closed below both the 20-period (0.924) and 50-period (0.926) moving averages, suggesting bearish bias. On the daily chart, the price has drifted below the 50-period (0.933), 100-period (0.937), and 200-period (0.942) moving averages. This indicates a strong downward trend that may continue in the near term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative early in the session and remained in bearish territory, with the signal line crossing below it around 19:30 ET. RSI dropped into oversold territory below 30 after 02:00 ET, reaching a low of 26. This suggests the price may consolidate or retest key support before any potential rebound. Divergence between RSI and price action near 0.903–0.906 may indicate potential for a short-term bounce.

Bollinger Bands

Price action showed a period of contraction in Bollinger Bands during midday consolidation but expanded significantly in the evening as the price moved toward the lower band. FTT/USDT closed near the lower band at 0.92, indicating high volatility and bearish pressure. A break below 0.903 could see the pair test the 0.895 level.

Volume & TurnoverVolume spiked sharply in the last 6 hours, with the largest 15-minute candle (02:15–02:30 ET) showing a turnover of $91,539. This aligns with the price drop to 0.9032. However, volume has not confirmed a strong rebound, as the price remains under the 0.922 level. Notional turnover has been consistently above $15,000 since 20:00 ET, indicating heightened interest from sellers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Using the recent swing high of 0.9363 and low of 0.9003, key Fibonacci levels include 0.914 (38.2%), 0.906 (61.8%), and 0.903 (78.6%). The price has tested the 61.8% level (0.906) twice in the last 12 hours. A break below 0.903 may lead to a test of the 0.895 level.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current bearish setup and oversold RSI, a potential short-term bounce is possible. A backtest strategy using a Fibonacci retracement-based entry at the 38.2% level (0.914) with a stop below 0.906 and a target near 0.920 could be considered. This approach would aim to capture a potential reversal, leveraging both price action and momentum signals. However, traders should remain cautious of divergence between price and volume, as it could signal a breakdown rather than a bounce.