Market Overview: FTT/USDT on 2025-11-13

Summary
• FTT/USDT declined by -1.5% over 24 hours amid weak volume and bearish momentum.
• RSI drifted into oversold territory, but lack of follow-through suggests bearish exhaustion.
• Bollinger Bands constricted mid-day, hinting at potential breakout risk.

FTX Token/Tether (FTTUSDT) opened at $0.7508, reached a high of $0.769, dropped to a low of $0.7402, and closed at $0.7441 on 2025-11-13. Total volume traded over 24 hours was 298,784.19 with a notional turnover of $222,019. The pair shows bearish bias with a consolidation pattern forming around $0.750.

Key support levels appear near $0.740–0.745, with a bearish engulfing candle observed in the morning hours. Resistance remains at $0.760–0.765, where price stalled twice. A doji formed near $0.7482 during mid-day, suggesting indecision.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have crossed lower, reinforcing bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-day MA sits above the 200-day MA, but price remains below both, indicating a bearish trend. MACD has flattened, but remains negative, while RSI has fallen to 28, suggesting oversold conditions. However, price failed to retest $0.7402, hinting at potential reversal.

Bollinger Bands have narrowed during midday trading, pointing to a potential breakout. Price remains near the lower band, indicating volatility could expand in either direction. Volume has remained steady, but notional turnover has decreased slightly, which may indicate a lack of conviction in the current bearish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis
The RSI-based swing strategy, using standard 14-period RSI with 30/70 thresholds and daily close price, showed extreme underperformance over the 2022–2025 back-test window. The FTX Token’s structural devaluation, especially after the collapse of the FTX exchange in 2022, overwhelmed the strategy’s assumptions. Even during periods when RSI indicated oversold conditions, the price continued to trend lower without meaningful rebounds. This highlights the need for additional risk controls—such as stop-losses or tighter overbought/oversold thresholds—to protect against the prolonged bearish dynamics of FTT.