Market Overview for Flow/Bitcoin (FLOWBTC) on 2025-10-10

• Flow/Bitcoin (FLOWBTC) traded in a narrow range for most of the 24 hours before a sharp 15:15 ET selloff to 2.91e-06.
• Volume spiked at 15:15 ET with 7874.36 FLOW traded, indicating potential bearish momentum.
• A long lower shadow at 15:15 ET and a bearish engulfing pattern suggest bearish sentiment.
• RSI reached oversold levels near 30, while MACD remained in negative territory with bearish divergence.
• Price remains well below 20-period and 50-period moving averages, indicating a weak near-term trend.

Market Overview and Price Action

Flow/Bitcoin (FLOWBTC) opened at 2.93e-06 on 2025-10-09 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 2.98e-06 before closing at 2.91e-06 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET. The pair traded between 2.89e-06 and 3.01e-06 over the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to 126,712.26 FLOW, while turnover was approximately $369.77 (assuming $0.0418 FLOW price).

The price action featured a sharp decline at 15:15 ET, where it closed at 2.91e-06 with a bearish engulfing pattern and a long lower shadow. This marked a significant shift in sentiment. The price remained below key short-term moving averages, including the 20-period and 50-period lines on the 15-minute chart, reinforcing a bearish bias.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Key support levels observed during the 24-hour period include 2.91e-06 (the lowest point on 15:15 ET), which could act as a potential floor if the bearish trend continues. A shallow recovery above 2.95e-06 may test the 50-period moving average as a potential resistance. Notable candlestick patterns include a bearish engulfing at 15:15 ET, a doji at 03:15 ET, and a long lower shadow at the session's close.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were below current price levels, indicating a bearish short-term trend. The 50-period line on the daily chart also sits above the close, supporting the bearish case. The RSI indicator reached oversold levels (~30) at the end of the session, suggesting potential for a near-term bounce. However, the MACD remained in negative territory with a bearish divergence, indicating ongoing selling pressure.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility showed a slight expansion as the price moved from 2.98e-06 to 2.91e-06. The price closed just below the lower band at 15:15 ET, suggesting a potential bounce from oversold levels. The narrowing of bands earlier in the session indicated a consolidation phase before the bearish breakout. A retest of the lower band could confirm bearish momentum in the near term.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume surged at 15:15 ET with 7874.36 FLOW traded, coinciding with a sharp decline to 2.91e-06. Turnover increased significantly during this time, confirming the bearish price action. The divergence between price and volume was minimal, with volume rising as prices fell. This alignment supports the bearish bias but does not indicate a breakdown of structure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing (from 2.98e-06 to 2.91e-06), key levels include 2.95e-06 (38.2%) and 2.93e-06 (61.8%). A retest of the 61.8% level could offer a short-term floor. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of the larger bearish move remains a critical watchpoint for potential trend continuation.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy focuses on identifying bearish engulfing patterns with confirmation from volume spikes and RSI reaching oversold levels. This aligns with the 15:15 ET candle, where a bearish engulfing pattern formed alongside a significant volume spike. The RSI also hit an oversold level, suggesting a potential reversal or consolidation. A confirmed break below 2.91e-06 with increasing volume would validate the bearish case, while a retest of the 2.95e-06 level could trigger a short-term rebound.