Market Overview for FLOKI/Tether (FLOKIUSDT) – September 21, 2025

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Summary
• FLOKI/Tether fell from a 24-hour high of $0.00009856 to a low of $0.00009561, closing near the session’s lower end.
• Key support was tested at $0.00009650 and $0.00009580, with bearish momentum visible in RSI and candlestick patterns.
• Volatility expanded in the 24-hour period, with Bollinger Bands widening after a consolidation phase.
• Volume surged during the price decline, confirming the bearish breakdown from key levels.
• MACD remained bearish, with negative divergence in RSI suggesting potential exhaustion at lower levels.

FLOKI/Tether opened at $0.00009808 on September 20 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as $0.00009856 before dropping to a 24-hour low of $0.00009561. The pair closed at $0.00009618 at 12:00 ET on September 21. Total volume traded in the 24-hour period was 19,080,810,170 tokens, with notional turnover (volume × price) amounting to approximately $1,832,800. The pair exhibited bearish sentiment in the latter half of the session, with price declining in broad, wide-range bearish candles.

Structure and price action suggested a bearish shift. A key support level at $0.00009650 was pierced early in the decline, and the price found temporary support at $0.00009580. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 19:00–20:00 ET as the price broke below a key consolidation range. The 15-minute chart showed a series of lower highs and lower lows, indicating a potential continuation of the bearish trend.

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both remained above the current price, suggesting bearish momentum. The 50-period moving average at $0.00009700 acted as resistance in the late evening session, confirming a breakdown. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA (not explicitly calculated here) likely remained above the current price, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 200-period MA, if plotted, would have acted as a strong long-term resistance.

The RSI closed near 30, suggesting the pair may be entering oversold territory. However, RSI divergence was evident in the late session, as the indicator failed to make higher lows while the price continued to fall, pointing to potential exhaustion. The MACD remained negative throughout most of the session, confirming the bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands showed a clear expansion in the second half of the session, with the price closing near the lower band, indicating increased volatility and a probable continuation of the downward move.

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the key swing high of $0.00009856 to the low of $0.00009561 suggest potential near-term support levels at the 38.2% ($0.00009739) and 61.8% ($0.00009662) levels. The price briefly bounced at the 61.8% level but failed to sustain a rebound, indicating weak support. On the daily chart, a larger swing high would be needed to identify major Fibonacci levels for longer-term positioning.

Volume surged during the decline, particularly in the 19:00–20:30 ET timeframe, aligning with the breakdown from the consolidation range. Notional turnover also spiked during this time, confirming the move. Price and volume aligned well, reinforcing the bearish signal. A divergence between price and volume during the recovery attempt around 09:00 ET suggested weak conviction in the bullish bounce.

Backtest Hypothesis
Given the bearish engulfing pattern and confirmation through volume and RSI divergence, a potential short entry could have been placed at $0.00009650 with a stop above $0.00009730 (50-period MA). A target could be set at $0.00009560, the most recent low, and a trailing stop at 2.5% for risk management. A backtest of this setup over the past 30 days would likely show a win rate above 60% on short positions, particularly in low volatility environments followed by sharp breakouts. This aligns with the observed behavior in the last 24 hours, where a consolidation phase gave way to a sharp bearish breakout.