Market Overview for FLOKI/Tether (FLOKIUSDT) - 2025-10-09

• Price consolidated between $0.000094 and $0.000101, forming a range-bound pattern with a bearish bias in the final hours.
• Volume spiked during the 17:30–19:00 ET window, confirming bearish breakdowns and a shift in momentum.
• RSI remained below 50, signaling bearish momentum, while Bollinger Bands widened, reflecting increased volatility.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged near the 24-hour high at $0.000101, hinting at potential further downside.
• Total notional turnover hit $457.4M with volume exceeding 29.4B, pointing to elevated retail and speculative activity.

Market Overview and Price Action

FLOKI/Tether (FLOKIUSDT) opened at $0.00009962 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.0001017, fell to a low of $0.0000941, and closed at $0.00009459 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-09. Total notional turnover for the 24-hour period was $457.4M, with volume exceeding 29.4 billion. Price action reflected a bearish consolidation from a late-ET breakout.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels were identified at $0.000096, $0.0000945, and $0.000093, while resistance levels appeared at $0.0000995, $0.0001005, and $0.0001015. A bearish engulfing candle appeared at $0.0001013 during the 17:30–17:45 ET window, suggesting a rejection of the upper range and a probable shift in sentiment. Doji candles near $0.0000995 and $0.0000945 indicated indecision and potential turning points in the range.

Technical Indicators

The 15-minute moving averages showed FLOKIUSDT below both the 20-period and 50-period SMAs, suggesting a bearish bias in the short term. On the daily chart, the price was below the 50-period and 200-period SMAs, reinforcing a bearish trend. The MACD remained negative throughout, with the histogram declining, indicating waning bullish momentum. RSI stayed below 50, with a brief oversold touch at 32.5 during the 08:30–09:00 ET window, failing to trigger a strong rebound.

Bollinger Bands showed a widening range, reflecting increased volatility, especially after 17:00 ET. The price closed below the 20-period lower band, suggesting it may test the $0.000094 level in the next 24 hours.

Volume and Turnover

Volumes surged during the 17:30–19:30 ET window, peaking at 5.166 billion during a bearish move to $0.0001008. This volume surge coincided with a breakdown from the $0.0001015 resistance level, reinforcing the bearish bias. Notional turnover spiked during the same period, aligning with price declines. However, volume during the final 6 hours remained relatively low, indicating a possible exhaustion of short-term selling pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the price broke below the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the $0.0000995–$0.0001015 swing, confirming bearish continuation. A potential target for the next 24–48 hours appears at $0.000093, aligned with the 61.8% of the $0.000093–$0.0001015 daily swing.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy involves a bearish breakout entry at key Fibonacci retracement levels (61.8%) with a stop above the 78.6% level, targeting the 38.2% or next support. This aligns with the observed 61.8% retracement break on the 15-minute swing and the confirmed bearish engulfing candle. Given the RSI in oversold territory and volume confirming the breakdown, the strategy may be viable for the next 24–48 hours.