Market Overview for FLOKI/Tether (FLOKIUSDT) on 2025-09-25

• FLOKI/Tether (FLOKIUSDT) declined from 8.685e-05 to 8.204e-05, forming a bearish trend with key resistance at 8.674e-05.
• Momentum slowed as RSI dipped below 30, suggesting oversold conditions with potential for a near-term bounce.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the session, with Bollinger Bands widening to reflect increased uncertainty.
• On-chain volume surged to a 24-hour peak during the 12:30–13:00 ET window, but failed to confirm a strong reversal.
• A bearish divergence in RSI and volume was observed as price hit multi-day lows, signaling caution for further declines.

FLOKI/Tether (FLOKIUSDT) opened at 8.674e-05 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 8.685e-05 and a low of 8.046e-05 before closing at 8.204e-05 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET. Total volume was 105,677,139,391.0, with a notional turnover of approximately $8.72 million. A bearish pressure defined the session, with price action forming a bearish flag pattern between 8.685e-05 and 8.046e-05.

The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained bearish, with the price consistently below both. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-day EMAs also crossed in a death cross pattern, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. A potential support zone appears forming around 8.046e-05, with 8.204e-05 acting as a short-term floor. A bullish engulfing pattern was observed at the end of the session, which may signal a near-term reversal but lacks strong volume confirmation.

Macroeconomic momentum, as measured by the MACD and RSI, shows diverging signals. While MACD remained bearish with a negative histogram, RSI has dipped below 30, suggesting potential oversold conditions. This divergence implies caution: while the price may find support in the near term, the broader trend remains bearish. Bollinger Bands widened significantly, reflecting increased volatility, with price sitting near the lower band—another sign of potential exhaustion in the downward move.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the most recent 15-minute swing from 8.685e-05 to 8.046e-05 indicate key levels at 8.38e-05 (38.2%) and 8.20e-05 (61.8%), which align with the current close. These levels may serve as potential turning points in the near term. The price could find a temporary ceiling at 8.38e-05 before resuming its bearish trend if the 61.8% level fails as a floor.

Backtest Hypothesis
The observed bearish flag pattern and RSI oversold conditions suggest a potential for a short-term bounce. A backtesting strategy could be constructed by entering a long position on a close above the 8.204e-05 level, with a stop-loss just below the recent swing low at 8.046e-05 and a target near the 8.38e-05 Fibonacci level. This setup would aim to capture a potential retracement before the broader downtrend resumes. Given the current divergence in momentum indicators, this approach should be used with caution and not as a standalone entry signal.