Market Overview for FLOKI/Tether (FLOKIUSDT) on 2025-09-14

• Price action shows a sharp 9.7% decline over 24 hours, with a key swing low forming at $0.00010495
• Momentum weakened as RSI dipped below 30, signaling potential oversold conditions
• Volatility spiked mid-session with high volume, but price failed to regain prior resistance
• Volume spiked to $7.58B during the early AM ET, but price closed lower, hinting at bearish exhaustion
• A key 15-minute doji emerged near $0.00010504, suggesting short-term indecision

FLOKI/Tether (FLOKIUSDT) opened at $0.00010715 on 2025-09-13 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.00010431 on 2025-09-14 at 12:00 ET, forming a bearish candle with a high of $0.00010782 and a low of $0.00010402. Total trading volume reached 29.99 billion FLOKI, while notional turnover totaled approximately $3.16 billion.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart shows a bearish bias, with price testing key support levels at $0.00010500, $0.00010450, and $0.00010400. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed at $0.00010605, confirming a reversal in momentum after an earlier rebound. A 15-minute doji emerged at $0.00010504, suggesting short-term indecision. The price also tested a prior swing high at $0.0001071, which appears to have failed as resistance.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA are converging bearishly below current price levels. The 50SMA is at approximately $0.0001065, while the 20SMA has dropped to $0.0001068, confirming the downward trend. On the daily chart, the 50DMA is at $0.0001073, and the 200DMA is at $0.0001080, reinforcing that the price remains well below long-term averages.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has turned negative, with the histogram showing bearish divergence and a weak signal line crossing below zero, signaling deteriorating bullish momentum. RSI has dipped below 30, reaching a low of 27.8 at $0.00010495, indicating potential oversold conditions. However, RSI failed to rebound above 50, pointing to weak follow-through buying pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the early hours of the morning, with the Bollinger Bands widening to reflect increased uncertainty. The price has spent most of the session trading below the 20-period lower band, which reached as low as $0.00010435. This suggests a strong bearish bias and a possible continuation of the decline if the support at $0.00010400 holds.

Volume & Turnover

The most significant volume spike occurred between 02:00 and 05:00 ET, where turnover hit nearly $2.7B. Notably, this was followed by a sharp decline in price, indicating a failure of buyers to sustain higher levels. A divergence appears between volume and price as volume dipped after the midday low, suggesting potential exhaustion in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key swing from $0.00010782 to $0.00010495, the 38.2% level is at $0.00010635, and the 61.8% level is at $0.00010557. The price found brief support at the 61.8% level before breaking below it, confirming the depth of the bearish move. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement from the recent high is at $0.00010668, which also failed as support.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves entering a short position when price breaks below the 20SMA on the 15-minute chart with confirmation by a bearish engulfing candle and a RSI < 50. Stop-loss is placed at the nearest swing high, with a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Given the 24-hour action, a short signal would have been triggered around 01:15–02:00 ET on 2025-09-14. The strategy aligns with current bearish momentum, though execution would benefit from a pullback to test the $0.00010495–$0.00010500 zone for a stronger entry with improved risk/reward.