Market Overview for FLOKI/Tether on 2025-10-07

• FLOKI/Tether tested key support and resistance zones, with bearish pressure intensifying after 19:45 ET.
• Volume surged at 19:45 ET with a large bullish candle, but failed to sustain gains beyond 22:30 ET.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions early, followed by oversold levels by 23:45 ET, hinting at diverging momentum.
• Price remained within contracting Bollinger Bands most of the session, breaking the lower band at 23:45 ET.
• Turnover hit a 24-hour high of $11.93B at 19:45 ET, but failed to confirm a sustained bullish breakout.

FLOKI/Tether (FLOKIUSDT) opened at $0.00010383 (12:00 ET − 1), reached a high of $0.00010513, and closed at $0.00010238 (12:00 ET), with a low of $0.00010172. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 60,408,222,385.66, and notional turnover was approximately $6,168,195,954.

The session was defined by a failed bullish attempt from 19:45 ET, where a large bullish candle (open: 0.00010240, high: 0.00010478, close: 0.00010320) appeared amid a spike in volume ($11.93B). This candle, however, did not hold gains into the next hour, suggesting bearish follow-through. A bearish engulfing pattern formed between 19:45 ET and 20:00 ET, reinforcing the idea that short-term bullish momentum had stalled. The session ended with a close just above the 12:00 ET low, indicating that the bears remained in control for much of the session.

A notable bearish trend emerged following the 20:00 ET high of $0.00010368, with a sequence of lower highs and lower lows forming into the session close. The 15-minute RSI oscillated between 25 and 70, indicating both overbought and oversold conditions, but failed to confirm a breakout. MACD remained negative for most of the session, with a weak bearish crossover at 19:15 ET. The price remained within the Bollinger Bands for most of the session but broke the lower band at 23:45 ET, a sign of increased volatility.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the 15-minute swing from 19:45 ET to 20:15 ET (0.00010240 to 0.00010408) identified 0.00010331 (38.2%) and 0.00010273 (61.8%) as key support levels. These levels were tested and partially held, but a breakdown below 0.00010273 may signal a retest of the session low at 0.00010172. The 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart crossed below the 20-period line at 20:00 ET, forming a death cross that may support further bearish momentum in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy described focuses on using the 15-minute MACD and RSI to identify short-term mean-reversion trades within a defined Fibonacci range. The hypothesis would look to enter short positions on bearish RSI divergences or bearish MACD crossovers when price is above the 50-period moving average. Stop-loss and take-profit levels would be based on recent Fibonacci retracement levels and support/resistance zones. Given today’s price behavior, this strategy could have triggered a short signal at 20:00 ET and a potential exit near 23:45 ET as the RSI hit oversold territory. The strategy’s performance would depend on the precision of entry and exit timing, as well as volatility management.